Which measures of adiposity predict subsequent left ventricular geometry? Evidence from the Bogalusa Heart Study

Background and aims: Left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy increases the risk of future cardiovascular events. The relationship between obesity in young adulthood and later LV geometry is unknown. We examined the association between long-term changes in measures of adiposity and subsequent LV geometry among 1073 young adults from the Bogalusa Heart Study. Methods and results: Echocardiography-measured LV geometry was classified into normal (N = 796), concentric remodeling (N = 124), eccentric hypertrophy (N = 99), and concentric hypertrophy (N = 54) by integrating relative wall thickness and LV mass index. The mean age of our population was 38 years when the LV geometry was measured. Body mass index (BMI) increased by a mean of 4.9kg/m² over a median of 20 years, waist circumference (WC) by 10.9cm over 17 years, waist/hip ratio by 0.02 over 10 years, waist/height ratio by 0.06 over 17 years, abdominal height by 0.9cm over 10 years, body fat (BF) percentage by 12.7% over 20 years, and Visceral Adiposity Index by 0.30 over 17 years. In polytomous logistic regression models corrected for multiple comparisons, participants with one-standard-deviation increases in BMI, WC, waist/height ratio, and BF had 2.00 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.53-2.61), 1.33 (1.06-1.68), 1.35 (1.07-1.70), and 1.60 (1.26-2.03) times the risk of eccentric hypertrophy, respectively, after adjustment for demographic, lifestyle, metabolic risk factors, and follow-up time. Likewise, the rates of change in BMI, WC, waist/height ratio, and BF were associated with eccentric hypertrophy. There was no association with concentric remodeling or concentric hypertrophy. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that increases in BMI, WC, waist/height ratio, and BF were strong predictors of eccentric hypertrophy in middle age.