Visceral Fat Predicts New-Onset Diabetes After Necrotizing Pancreatitis

Objectives We aimed to estimate the incidence of new-onset diabetes (NOD) and identify risk factors for NOD in patients with necrotizing pancreatitis (NP). Methods Necrotizing pancreatitis patients were reviewed for NOD, diagnosed >90 days after acute pancreatitis. Baseline demographics, comorbidities, clinical outcomes, computed tomography (CT) characteristics of necrotic collections, and CT-derived abdominal fat measurements were analyzed to identify predictors for NOD. Results Among 390 eligible NP patients (66% men; median age, 51 years; interquartile range [IQR], 36-64) with a median follow-up of 400 days (IQR, 105-1074 days), NOD developed in 101 patients (26%) after a median of 216 days (IQR, 92-749 days) from NP. Of the NOD patients, 84% required insulin and 69% developed exocrine pancreatic insufficiency (EPI). Age (odds ratio [OR], 0.98), male sex (OR, 2.7), obesity (OR, 2.1), presence of EPI (OR, 2.7), and diffuse pancreatic necrosis (OR, 2.4) were independent predictors. In a separate multivariable model assessing abdominal fat on CT, visceral fat area (highest quartile) was an independent predictor for NOD (OR, 3.01). Conclusions New-onset diabetes was observed in 1 of 4 patients with NP, most within the first year and requiring insulin. Male sex, obesity, diffuse pancreatic necrosis, development of EPI, and high visceral adiposity identified those at highest risk.