Violence risk appraisal of male and female youth, adults, and individuals

Data from youth (n = 1,127), adults (n = 1,595), and individuals (N = 2,722, combined youth and adults) were followed 3 to 12 years in records to develop items to predict abuse, violence, and homicide in these 3 relevant groups for risk appraisal or safety scales. Shao's bootstrapped logistic regression yielded 14 predictors for youth (AUC = .91), 11 for adults (AUC = .99), and 13 for individuals (AUC = .96). Three regression equations were cross-validated with in-bag and out-of-bag techniques. Pearson coefficients were computed with intelligence, achievement, adaptive behavior, and perception tests. Test-retest reliability was acceptable. Using case-control quasi-experimental design, this study extends probation-parole decision-making tests to infants and children as young as 3 years, with convergent and divergent validity and reliability with other tests. Sensitivity and specificity were high and minimized over- or under-identification challenges in identifying potentially violent persons in the general population.