Tropical nighttime warming as a dominant driver of variability in the terrestrial carbon sink

William R.L. Anderegg; Ashley P. Ballantyne; W. Kolby Smith; Joseph Majkut; Sam Rabin; Claudie Beaulieu; Richard Birdsey; John P. Dunne; Richard A. Houghton; Ranga B. Myneni; Yude Pan; Jorge L. Sarmiento; Nathan Serota; Elena Shevliakova; Pieter Tans; Stephen W. Pacala

doi:10.1073/pnas.1521479112

Tropical nighttime warming as a dominant driver of variability in the terrestrial carbon sink

William R.L. Anderegg, Ashley P. Ballantyne, W. Kolby Smith, Joseph Majkut, Sam Rabin, Claudie Beaulieu, Richard Birdsey, John P. Dunne, Richard A. Houghton, Ranga B. Myneni, Yude Pan, Jorge L. Sarmiento, Nathan Serota, Elena Shevliakova, Pieter Tans, Stephen W. Pacala

Institute on the Environment

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

101 Scopus citations

Abstract

The terrestrial biosphere is currently a strong carbon (C) sink but may switch to a source in the 21st century as climate-driven losses exceed CO₂-driven C gains, thereby accelerating global warming. Although it has long been recognized that tropical climate plays a critical role in regulating interannual climate variability, the causal link between changes in temperature and precipitation and terrestrial processes remains uncertain. Here, we combine atmospheric mass balance, remote sensing-modeled datasets of vegetation C uptake, and climate datasets to characterize the temporal variability of the terrestrial C sink and determine the dominant climate drivers of this variability. We show that the interannual variability of global land C sink has grown by 50-100% over the past 50 y. We further find that interannual land C sink variability is most strongly linked to tropical nighttime warming, likely through respiration. This apparent sensitivity of respiration to nighttime temperatures, which are projected to increase faster than global average temperatures, suggests that C stored in tropical forests may be vulnerable to future warming.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	15591-15596
Number of pages	6
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume	112
Issue number	51
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1521479112
State	Published - Dec 22 2015

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We thank Pekka Kauppi and the Finnish Society of Sciences and Letters, and the Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton University for sponsoring the workshop that led to this paper. W.R.L.A. was supported, in part, by US National Science Foundation (NSF) MacroSystems Biology Grant Division of Environmental Biology EF-1340270, NSF RAPID Grant DEB-1249256, NSF Early Concept Grants for Exploratory Research (EAGER) Grant 1550932, and a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate and Global Change postdoctoral fellowship, administered by the University Corporation of Atmospheric Research.

Keywords

Asymmetrical warming
Carbon budget
Climate change
Climate feedback
Inversion model

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1073/pnas.1521479112

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Anderegg, W. R. L., Ballantyne, A. P., Smith, W. K., Majkut, J., Rabin, S., Beaulieu, C., Birdsey, R., Dunne, J. P., Houghton, R. A., Myneni, R. B., Pan, Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Serota, N., Shevliakova, E., Tans, P., & Pacala, S. W. (2015). Tropical nighttime warming as a dominant driver of variability in the terrestrial carbon sink. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112(51), 15591-15596. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1521479112

Anderegg, WRL, Ballantyne, AP, Smith, WK, Majkut, J, Rabin, S, Beaulieu, C, Birdsey, R, Dunne, JP, Houghton, RA, Myneni, RB, Pan, Y, Sarmiento, JL, Serota, N, Shevliakova, E, Tans, P & Pacala, SW 2015, 'Tropical nighttime warming as a dominant driver of variability in the terrestrial carbon sink', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 112, no. 51, pp. 15591-15596. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1521479112

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abstract = "The terrestrial biosphere is currently a strong carbon (C) sink but may switch to a source in the 21st century as climate-driven losses exceed CO2-driven C gains, thereby accelerating global warming. Although it has long been recognized that tropical climate plays a critical role in regulating interannual climate variability, the causal link between changes in temperature and precipitation and terrestrial processes remains uncertain. Here, we combine atmospheric mass balance, remote sensing-modeled datasets of vegetation C uptake, and climate datasets to characterize the temporal variability of the terrestrial C sink and determine the dominant climate drivers of this variability. We show that the interannual variability of global land C sink has grown by 50-100% over the past 50 y. We further find that interannual land C sink variability is most strongly linked to tropical nighttime warming, likely through respiration. This apparent sensitivity of respiration to nighttime temperatures, which are projected to increase faster than global average temperatures, suggests that C stored in tropical forests may be vulnerable to future warming.",

keywords = "Asymmetrical warming, Carbon budget, Climate change, Climate feedback, Inversion model",

author = "Anderegg, {William R.L.} and Ballantyne, {Ashley P.} and Smith, {W. Kolby} and Joseph Majkut and Sam Rabin and Claudie Beaulieu and Richard Birdsey and Dunne, {John P.} and Houghton, {Richard A.} and Myneni, {Ranga B.} and Yude Pan and Sarmiento, {Jorge L.} and Nathan Serota and Elena Shevliakova and Pieter Tans and Pacala, {Stephen W.}",

note = "Funding Information: We thank Pekka Kauppi and the Finnish Society of Sciences and Letters, and the Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton University for sponsoring the workshop that led to this paper. W.R.L.A. was supported, in part, by US National Science Foundation (NSF) MacroSystems Biology Grant Division of Environmental Biology EF-1340270, NSF RAPID Grant DEB-1249256, NSF Early Concept Grants for Exploratory Research (EAGER) Grant 1550932, and a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate and Global Change postdoctoral fellowship, administered by the University Corporation of Atmospheric Research.",

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AU - Anderegg, William R.L.

AU - Ballantyne, Ashley P.

AU - Smith, W. Kolby

AU - Majkut, Joseph

AU - Rabin, Sam

AU - Beaulieu, Claudie

AU - Birdsey, Richard

AU - Dunne, John P.

AU - Houghton, Richard A.

AU - Myneni, Ranga B.

AU - Pan, Yude

AU - Sarmiento, Jorge L.

AU - Serota, Nathan

AU - Shevliakova, Elena

AU - Tans, Pieter

AU - Pacala, Stephen W.

N1 - Funding Information: We thank Pekka Kauppi and the Finnish Society of Sciences and Letters, and the Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton University for sponsoring the workshop that led to this paper. W.R.L.A. was supported, in part, by US National Science Foundation (NSF) MacroSystems Biology Grant Division of Environmental Biology EF-1340270, NSF RAPID Grant DEB-1249256, NSF Early Concept Grants for Exploratory Research (EAGER) Grant 1550932, and a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate and Global Change postdoctoral fellowship, administered by the University Corporation of Atmospheric Research.

PY - 2015/12/22

Y1 - 2015/12/22

N2 - The terrestrial biosphere is currently a strong carbon (C) sink but may switch to a source in the 21st century as climate-driven losses exceed CO2-driven C gains, thereby accelerating global warming. Although it has long been recognized that tropical climate plays a critical role in regulating interannual climate variability, the causal link between changes in temperature and precipitation and terrestrial processes remains uncertain. Here, we combine atmospheric mass balance, remote sensing-modeled datasets of vegetation C uptake, and climate datasets to characterize the temporal variability of the terrestrial C sink and determine the dominant climate drivers of this variability. We show that the interannual variability of global land C sink has grown by 50-100% over the past 50 y. We further find that interannual land C sink variability is most strongly linked to tropical nighttime warming, likely through respiration. This apparent sensitivity of respiration to nighttime temperatures, which are projected to increase faster than global average temperatures, suggests that C stored in tropical forests may be vulnerable to future warming.

AB - The terrestrial biosphere is currently a strong carbon (C) sink but may switch to a source in the 21st century as climate-driven losses exceed CO2-driven C gains, thereby accelerating global warming. Although it has long been recognized that tropical climate plays a critical role in regulating interannual climate variability, the causal link between changes in temperature and precipitation and terrestrial processes remains uncertain. Here, we combine atmospheric mass balance, remote sensing-modeled datasets of vegetation C uptake, and climate datasets to characterize the temporal variability of the terrestrial C sink and determine the dominant climate drivers of this variability. We show that the interannual variability of global land C sink has grown by 50-100% over the past 50 y. We further find that interannual land C sink variability is most strongly linked to tropical nighttime warming, likely through respiration. This apparent sensitivity of respiration to nighttime temperatures, which are projected to increase faster than global average temperatures, suggests that C stored in tropical forests may be vulnerable to future warming.

KW - Asymmetrical warming

KW - Carbon budget

KW - Climate change

KW - Climate feedback

KW - Inversion model

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JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

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ER -

Tropical nighttime warming as a dominant driver of variability in the terrestrial carbon sink

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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