Trends in COVID-19 Vaccine Administration and Effectiveness Through October 2021

Tyler N Winkelman, Nayanjot K. Rai, Peter J. Bodurtha, Alanna M. Chamberlain, Malini Desilva, Jessica Jeruzal, Steven G. Johnson, Anupam Kharbanda, Niall Klyn, Pamela J. Mink, Miriam Muscoplat, Stephen Waring, Yue Yu, Paul E. Drawz

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6 Scopus citations


Importance: COVID-19 vaccines are effective, but inequities in vaccine administration and waning immunity may limit vaccine effectiveness. Objectives: To report statewide trends in vaccine administration and vaccine effectiveness in Minnesota. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used COVID-19 vaccine data from the Minnesota Immunization Information Connection from October 25, 2020, through October 30, 2021 that were linked with electronic health record (EHR) data from health systems collaborating as part of the Minnesota EHR Consortium (MNEHRC). Participants included individuals who were seen at a participating health system in Minnesota. Exposures: Individuals were considered fully vaccinated in the second week after receipt of a second dose of a BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccine or a single dose of an Ad26.COV.2.S vaccine. Main Outcomes and Measures: A completed vaccination series and vaccine breakthrough, defined as either a positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test or a hospital admission the same week or within the 3 weeks following a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test. A test-negative design and incident rate ratio were used to evaluate COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness separately for the BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and Ad26.COV.2.S vaccines. Rurality and social vulnerability index were assessed at the area level. Results: This study included 4431190 unique individuals at participating health systems, and 3013704 (68%) of the individuals were fully vaccinated. Vaccination rates were lowest among Minnesotans who identified as Hispanic (116422 of 217019 [54%]), multiracial (30066 of 57412 [52%]), American Indian or Alaska Native (22190 of 41437 [54%]), and Black or African American (158860 of 326595 [49%]) compared with Minnesotans who identified as Asian or Pacific Islander (159999 of 210994 [76%]) or White (2402928 of 3391747 [71%]). Among individuals aged 19 to 64 years, vaccination rates were lower in rural areas (196479 of 308047 [64%]) compared with urban areas (151541 of 1951265 [77%]) and areas with high social vulnerability (544433 of 774952 [70%]) compared with areas with low social vulnerability (571613 of 724369 [79%]). In the 9 weeks ending October 30, 2021, vaccine effectiveness as assessed by a test-negative design was 33% (95% CI, 30%-37%) for Ad26.COV.2.S; 53% (95% CI, 52%-54%) for BNT162b2; and 66% (95% CI, 65%-67%) for mRNA-1273. For SARS-CoV-2-related hospitalizations, vaccine effectiveness in the 9 weeks ending October 30, 2021, was 78% (95% CI, 75%-81%) for Ad26.COV.2.S; 81% (95% CI, 79%-82%) for BNT162b2; and 81% (95% CI, 79%-82%) for mRNA-1273. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study of data from a Minnesota statewide consortium suggests disparities in vaccine administration and effectiveness. Vaccine effectiveness against infection was lower for Ad26.COV.2.S and BNT162b2 but was associated with protection against SARS-CoV-2-related hospitalizations despite the increased prevalence of the Delta variant in Minnesota.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)E225018
JournalJAMA Network Open
Issue number3
StatePublished - Mar 31 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Drs Winkelman, Bodhurtha, DeSilva, and Johnson, Mink, and Drawz reported receiving grants from the Minnesota Department of Health during the conduct of the study. Dr Kharbanda reported receiving grants from the Minnesota Department of Health and a subcontract via Hennepin Healthcare during the conduct of the study and receiving grants from HealthPartners and VISION grant outside the submitted work. No other disclosures were reported.

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PubMed: MeSH publication types

  • Journal Article
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't


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