Tree diversity across the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area in relation to climate and social vulnerability

Urban tree canopy cover is often unequally distributed across cities such that more socially vulnerable neighborhoods often have lower tree canopy cover than less socially vulnerable neighborhoods. However, how the diversity and composition of the urban canopy affect the nature of social-ecological benefits (and burdens), including the urban forest's vulnerability to climate change, remains underexamined. Here, we synthesize tree inventories developed by multiple organizations and present a species-specific, geolocated database of more than 600,000 urban trees across the 7-county Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP) metropolitan area in the Upper Midwest of the United States. We find that tree diversity across the MSP is variable yet dominated by a few species (e.g., Fraxinus pennsylvanica, Acer platanoides, and Gleditsia triacanthos), contributing to the vulnerability of the MSP urban forest to future climate change and disturbances. In contrast to tree canopy cover, tree diversity was not well predicted by socioeconomic or demographic factors. However, our analysis identified areas where both climate and social vulnerability are high. Our results add to a growing body of literature emphasizing the importance of considering how complex and interacting social and ecological factors drive urban forest diversity and composition when pursuing management objectives.