Time series forecasting using functional partial least square regression with stochastic volatility, GARCH, and exponential smoothing

Jong Min Kim, Hojin Jung

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Scopus citations

Abstract

We propose a method for improving the predictive ability of standard forecasting models used in financial economics. Our approach is based on the functional partial least squares (FPLS) model, which is capable of avoiding multicollinearity in regression by efficiently extracting information from the high-dimensional market data. By using its well-known ability, we can incorporate auxiliary variables that improve the predictive accuracy. We provide an empirical application of our proposed methodology in terms of its ability to predict the conditional average log return and the volatility of crude oil prices via exponential smoothing, Bayesian stochastic volatility, and GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) models, respectively. In particular, what we call functional data analysis (FDA) traces in this article are obtained via the FPLS regression from both the crude oil returns and auxiliary variables of the exchange rates of major currencies. For forecast performance evaluation, we compare out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the standard models with FDA traces to the accuracy of the same forecasting models with the observed crude oil returns, principal component regression (PCR), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) models. We find evidence that the standard models with FDA traces significantly outperform our competing models. Finally, they are also compared with the test for superior predictive ability and the reality check for data snooping. Our empirical results show that our new methodology significantly improves predictive ability of standard models in forecasting the latent average log return and the volatility of financial time series.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)269-280
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of Forecasting
Volume37
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 2018

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Keywords

  • Bayesian stochastic volatility
  • GARCH
  • exponential smoothing method
  • forecasting
  • functional partial least square regression

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