The value of El Niño forecasts in the management of salmon: A stochastic dynamic assessment

Christopher J. Costello, Richard M. Adams, Stephen Polasky

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

59 Scopus citations

Abstract

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of interannual variability in global climate. Variability in climate has been linked to variability in fisheries, specifically salmon stocks of the Pacific Northwest. The ability to forecast El Niño events already exists and is likely to improve in coming years. An accurate prediction may have value because it allows for better management decisions. In this article, we develop a bioeconomic model of the coho salmon fishery and derive the value of information from improved El Niño forecasting ability. We find that a perfect El Niño forecast results in an annual welfare gain of approximately $1 million, while imperfect forecasts lead to smaller gains. Results also suggest that optimal management in the face of uncertainty involves a "conservative" management strategy, resulting in lower harvest, higher wild fish escapement, and lower hatchery releases than management in the absence of such uncertainty.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)765-777
Number of pages13
JournalAmerican Journal of Agricultural Economics
Volume80
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 1998

Keywords

  • Coho salmon
  • Economic analysis
  • El Niño
  • Value of information

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'The value of El Niño forecasts in the management of salmon: A stochastic dynamic assessment'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this