The validity of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score for the prediction of the incidence of coronary heart disease and stroke, and total mortality

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease shares several risk factors with type 2 diabetes. We tested whether the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC), recently developed in a Finnish population to estimate the future risk of diabetes, would also identify individuals at high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, and total mortality in this same population. DESIGN: Independent risk factor surveys were conducted in 1987, 1992, and 1997 in Finland, comprising 8268 men and 9457 women aged 25-64 years and free of CHD and stroke at baseline. During the follow-up until the end of 2001, 699 incident acute CHD events, 324 acute stroke events, and 765 deaths occurred. METHODS: The data were analysed by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the Cox-regression model. RESULTS: The areas under the ROC curves (AUC) were 71% for CHD, 73% for stroke, and 68% for total mortality in men and 78, 68, and 72% in women, respectively. The addition of systolic and diastolic blood pressures, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and smoking increased the AUC values modestly (the change of the absolute values from 2.6 to 6.5%), but the additional use of plasma glucose had only a slight effect on the AUC values for CHD and stroke. CONCLUSIONS: The FINDRISC is a reasonably good predictor of CHD, stroke and total mortality.