The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza a (H1N1) virus

Yang Yang, Jonathan D. Sugimoto, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Nicole E. Basta, Dennis L. Chao, Laura Matrajt, Gail Potter, Eben Kenah, Ira M. Longini

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

417 Scopus citations

Abstract

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become the dominant strain in the Southern Hemisphere, where the influenza season has now ended. Here, on the basis of reported case clusters in the United States, we estimated the household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) from 12.2% to 50.5%]. From a school outbreak, we estimated that a typical schoolchild infects 2.4 (95% Cl from 1.8 to 3.2) other children within the school. We estimated the basic reproductive number, R0, to range from 1.3 to 1.7 and the generation interval to range from 2.6 to 3.2 days. We used a simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the United States for fall 2009. If a vaccine were-available soon enough, vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high-risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)729-733
Number of pages5
JournalScience
Volume326
Issue number5953
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 30 2009

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