The Negative Binomial Distribution as a Renewal Model for the Recurrence of Large Earthquakes

Alejandro Tejedor, Javier B. Gómez, Amalio F. Pacheco

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

The negative binomial distribution is presented as the waiting time distribution of a cyclic Markov model. This cycle simulates the seismic cycle in a fault. As an example, this model, which can describe recurrences with aperiodicities between 0 and 0.5, is used to fit the Parkfield, California earthquake series in the San Andreas Fault. The performance of the model in the forecasting is expressed in terms of error diagrams and compared with other recurrence models from literature.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)23-31
Number of pages9
JournalPure and Applied Geophysics
Volume172
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2014

Keywords

  • Negative binomial distribution
  • earthquake forecasting
  • renewal process
  • seismic cycle

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