TY - JOUR
T1 - The Minnesota multi-investigator 2012 presidential election panel study
AU - Chen, Philip G.
AU - Appleby, Jacob
AU - Borgida, Eugene
AU - Callaghan, Timothy H.
AU - Ekstrom, Pierce
AU - Farhart, Christina E.
AU - Housholder, Elizabeth
AU - Kim, Hannah
AU - Ksiazkiewicz, Aleksander
AU - Lavine, Howard
AU - Luttig, Matthew D.
AU - Mohanty, Ruchika
AU - Rosenthal, Aaron
AU - Sheagley, Geoff
AU - Smith, Brianna A.
AU - Vitriol, Joseph A.
AU - Williams, Allison
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2014 The Society for the Psychological Study of Social Issues.
PY - 2014/12/1
Y1 - 2014/12/1
N2 - In an analysis of the 2012 presidential election, we sought to optimize two key desiderata in capturing campaign effects: establishing causality and measuring dynamic (i.e., intraindividual) change over time. We first report the results of three survey-experiments embedded within a three-wave survey panel design. Each experiment was focused on a substantive area of electoral concern. Our results suggest, among other findings, that retrospective evaluations exerted a stronger influence on vote choice in the referendum (vs. the choice) frame; that among White respondents, racial animosity strongly predicted economic evaluations for knowledgeable Republicans who were led to believe that positive economic developments were the result of actions taken by the Obama administration; and that information-seeking bias is a contingent phenomenon, one depending jointly on the opportunity and motivation to selectively tune in to congenial information. Lastly, we demonstrate how the panel design also allowed us to (1) examine the reliability and stability of a variety of election-related implicit attitudes, and to assess their impact on candidate evaluation; and (2) determine the causal impact of perceptions of candidates' traits and respondents' policy preferences on electoral preferences, and vice versa, an area of research long plagued by concerns about endogeneity.
AB - In an analysis of the 2012 presidential election, we sought to optimize two key desiderata in capturing campaign effects: establishing causality and measuring dynamic (i.e., intraindividual) change over time. We first report the results of three survey-experiments embedded within a three-wave survey panel design. Each experiment was focused on a substantive area of electoral concern. Our results suggest, among other findings, that retrospective evaluations exerted a stronger influence on vote choice in the referendum (vs. the choice) frame; that among White respondents, racial animosity strongly predicted economic evaluations for knowledgeable Republicans who were led to believe that positive economic developments were the result of actions taken by the Obama administration; and that information-seeking bias is a contingent phenomenon, one depending jointly on the opportunity and motivation to selectively tune in to congenial information. Lastly, we demonstrate how the panel design also allowed us to (1) examine the reliability and stability of a variety of election-related implicit attitudes, and to assess their impact on candidate evaluation; and (2) determine the causal impact of perceptions of candidates' traits and respondents' policy preferences on electoral preferences, and vice versa, an area of research long plagued by concerns about endogeneity.
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U2 - 10.1111/asap.12041
DO - 10.1111/asap.12041
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84920164595
SN - 1529-7489
VL - 14
SP - 78
EP - 104
JO - Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy
JF - Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy
IS - 1
ER -