The Inability to Calculate Predictive Values: an Old Problem that Has Not Gone Away

Background: Previous studies suggest that many physicians and medical trainees have trouble calculating the probability that a patient has a condition, also known as the predictive value. Activity: Two questions from the medical literature were administered to medical students, residents (post-medical school), fellows (post-residency), and faculty physicians. Results: Only 6% answered both questions correctly. Most commonly, the participants grossly overestimated the probability of disease. Discussion: Physicians still struggle with the ability to calculate predictive values, a skill that affects all branches of medicine and will become more consequential as new tests are administered to patients at low risk for disease.