The Inability to Calculate Predictive Values: an Old Problem that Has Not Gone Away

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1 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background: Previous studies suggest that many physicians and medical trainees have trouble calculating the probability that a patient has a condition, also known as the predictive value. Activity: Two questions from the medical literature were administered to medical students, residents (post-medical school), fellows (post-residency), and faculty physicians. Results: Only 6% answered both questions correctly. Most commonly, the participants grossly overestimated the probability of disease. Discussion: Physicians still struggle with the ability to calculate predictive values, a skill that affects all branches of medicine and will become more consequential as new tests are administered to patients at low risk for disease.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)685-688
Number of pages4
JournalMedical Science Educator
Volume30
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 1 2020

Keywords

  • Medical education
  • Predictive values
  • Replication

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