The Effects of Daily Temperature on Crime Events in Urban Hanoi, Vietnam Using Seven Years of Data (2013–2019)

Vu Thuy Huong Le, Jesse D. Berman, Quynh Anh Tran, Elizabeth V. Wattenberg, Bruce H. Alexander

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The effects of temperature on behavior change and mental health have previously been explored, but the association between temperature and crime is less well understood, especially in developing countries. Single-city-level data were used to evaluate the association between the short-term effects of temperature on crime events in urban Hanoi, Vietnam. We used quasi-Poisson regression models to investigate the linear effects and distributed lag non-linear models to investigate the non-linear association between daily temperature and daily crime events from 2013 to 2019. There were 3884 crime events, including 1083 violent crimes and 2801 non-violent crimes during the 7-year study period. For both linear and non-linear effects, there were positive associations between an increase in daily temperature and crime, and the greatest effects were observed on the first day of exposure (lag 0). For linear effects, we estimated that each 5 °C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with a 9.9% (95%CI: 0.2; 20.5), 6.8% (95%CI: 0.6; 13.5), and 7.5% (95%CI: 2.3; 13.2) increase in the risk of violent, non-violent, and total crime, respectively. For non-linear effects, however, the crime risk plateaued at 30 °C and decreased at higher exposures, which presented an inverted U-shape response with a large statistical uncertainty.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number13906
JournalInternational journal of environmental research and public health
Issue number21
StatePublished - Nov 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study was supported by funds from the Division of Environmental Health Sciences and School of Public Health at the University of Minnesota.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 by the authors.


  • Vietnam
  • climate change
  • crime
  • developing countries
  • hot weather
  • temperature
  • violent behavior
  • violent crime

PubMed: MeSH publication types

  • Journal Article
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't


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