The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields

Elisabeth Vogel, Markus G. Donat, Lisa V. Alexander, Malte Meinshausen, Deepak K. Ray, David Karoly, Nicolai Meinshausen, Katja Frieler

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Climate extremes, such as droughts or heat waves, can lead to harvest failures and threaten the livelihoods of agricultural producers and the food security of communities worldwide. Improving our understanding of their impacts on crop yields is crucial to enhance the resilience of the global food system. This study analyses, to our knowledge for the first time, the impacts of climate extremes on yield anomalies of maize, soybeans, rice and spring wheat at the global scale using sub-national yield data and applying a machine-learning algorithm. We find that growing season climate factors - including mean climate as well as climate extremes - explain 20%-49% of the variance of yield anomalies (the range describes the differences between crop types), with 18%-43% of the explained variance attributable to climate extremes, depending on crop type. Temperature-related extremes show a stronger association with yield anomalies than precipitation-related factors, while irrigation partly mitigates negative effects of high temperature extremes. We developed a composite indicator to identify hotspot regions that are critical for global production and particularly susceptible to the effects of climate extremes. These regions include North America for maize, spring wheat and soy production, Asia in the case of maize and rice production as well as Europe for spring wheat production. Our study highlights the importance of considering climate extremes for agricultural predictions and adaptation planning and provides an overview of critical regions that are most susceptible to variations in growing season climate and climate extremes.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number054010
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Volume14
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - May 3 2019

Fingerprint

Climate
Crops
climate
Drought
Triticum
Zea mays
Irrigation
Learning algorithms
wheat
maize
Learning systems
anomaly
Planning
growing season
rice
Temperature
effect
yield (agricultural)
Infrared Rays
Composite materials

Keywords

  • agriculture
  • crop yields
  • extreme weather events
  • machine learning
  • random forest

Cite this

Vogel, E., Donat, M. G., Alexander, L. V., Meinshausen, M., Ray, D. K., Karoly, D., ... Frieler, K. (2019). The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields. Environmental Research Letters, 14(5), [054010]. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab154b

The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields. / Vogel, Elisabeth; Donat, Markus G.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Meinshausen, Malte; Ray, Deepak K.; Karoly, David; Meinshausen, Nicolai; Frieler, Katja.

In: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, No. 5, 054010, 03.05.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Vogel, E, Donat, MG, Alexander, LV, Meinshausen, M, Ray, DK, Karoly, D, Meinshausen, N & Frieler, K 2019, 'The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 14, no. 5, 054010. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab154b
Vogel E, Donat MG, Alexander LV, Meinshausen M, Ray DK, Karoly D et al. The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields. Environmental Research Letters. 2019 May 3;14(5). 054010. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab154b
Vogel, Elisabeth ; Donat, Markus G. ; Alexander, Lisa V. ; Meinshausen, Malte ; Ray, Deepak K. ; Karoly, David ; Meinshausen, Nicolai ; Frieler, Katja. / The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields. In: Environmental Research Letters. 2019 ; Vol. 14, No. 5.
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