The effect of forest composition on outdoor recreation

Climate change will shift the composition of northern Minnesota forests from boreal to temperate by the end of the century. This shift in forest composition will likely affect outdoor recreation, a valuable ecosystem service and a key economic driver for the region. In this context, the objective of our paper is to empirically examine the relationship between forest composition and recreation. We analyze the effect of changes in forest composition for seven forest types on seven types of recreation using a lognormal pooled panel regression model for Minnesota's Laurentian Mixed Forest Province. Earlier research showed forest composition affected recreation at the level of broad groups of broadleaved or coniferous species. We find a statistically significant empirical association between forest composition and recreation at the forest type level (forest types within those broad groups). This relationship varies across forest types and recreation categories. For example, big game hunting is positively related to elm-ash-cottonwood and white-red-jack pine and negatively associated with aspen-birch. We find individual forest types within broad groups of broadleaved or coniferous forests, have different relationships with recreation, so that these broad groups are not sufficient in capturing the effect of forest composition on recreation. Our results are of interest in the context of current shifts in forest composition caused by climate change, which could also affect recreation. Our findings suggest adding a forest composition lens to existing policies could facilitate strategies for more effective recreation management and climate change adaptation.