The Economic Impacts of 2015 Avian Influenza Outbreak on the U.S. Turkey Industry and the Loss Mitigating Role of Free Trade Agreements

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Abstract

We investigate the economic impacts of the 2015 HPAI outbreak on turkey producers in Minnesota and the United States. Using a partial equilibrium model of the meat and poultry industry we find that the cost of the outbreak to U.S turkey producers was $225 million; $207 million of which were due to the loss in exports. However, it could have been worse if not for implementation of regional bans by trading partners who have negotiated free trade agreements with the United States. Our results show that for every percentage point of additional ex-ports, U.S. turkey producers avoided a loss of about $6 million.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)297-315
Number of pages19
JournalApplied Economic Perspectives and Policy
Volume40
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - 2018

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We would like to thank Dominique Rolando for his help in preparing the appendix to the manuscript. We are also grateful to two anonymous referees and the editor, Roderick Rejesus, for their valuable comments. All errors are our own. This research has been supported by the University of Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station.

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author 2017.

Keywords

  • agribusiness
  • avian flu
  • demand
  • equilibrium displacement model
  • free trade
  • international trade policy
  • turkey

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