The diversity of population responses to environmental change

Fernando Colchero, Owen R Jones, Dalia A. Conde, David Hodgson, Felix Zajitschek, Benedikt R. Schmidt, Aurelio F. Malo, Susan C. Alberts, Peter H. Becker, Sandra Bouwhuis, Anne M. Bronikowski, Kristel M. De Vleeschouwer, Richard J. Delahay, Stefan Dummermuth, Eduardo Fernández-Duque, John Frisenvænge, Martin Hesselsøe, Sam Larson, Jean François Lemaître, Jennifer McDonald & 12 others David A.W. Miller, Colin O'Donnell, Craig Packer, Becky E. Raboy, Chris J. Reading, Erik Wapstra, Henri Weimerskirch, Geoffrey M. While, Annette Baudisch, Thomas Flatt, Tim Coulson, Jean Michel Gaillard

Research output: Contribution to journalLetter

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)342-353
Number of pages12
JournalEcology letters
Volume22
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 1 2019

Fingerprint

environmental change
population growth
demographic statistics
fecundity
population dynamics
extinction
perturbation
climate change
prediction
simulation
rate

Keywords

  • Age-structured population models
  • Bayesian inference
  • fecundity
  • mortality
  • survival

PubMed: MeSH publication types

  • Letter

Cite this

Colchero, F., Jones, OR., Conde, D. A., Hodgson, D., Zajitschek, F., Schmidt, B. R., ... Gaillard, J. M. (2019). The diversity of population responses to environmental change. Ecology letters, 22(2), 342-353. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13195

The diversity of population responses to environmental change. / Colchero, Fernando; Jones, Owen R; Conde, Dalia A.; Hodgson, David; Zajitschek, Felix; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Malo, Aurelio F.; Alberts, Susan C.; Becker, Peter H.; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Bronikowski, Anne M.; De Vleeschouwer, Kristel M.; Delahay, Richard J.; Dummermuth, Stefan; Fernández-Duque, Eduardo; Frisenvænge, John; Hesselsøe, Martin; Larson, Sam; Lemaître, Jean François; McDonald, Jennifer; Miller, David A.W.; O'Donnell, Colin; Packer, Craig; Raboy, Becky E.; Reading, Chris J.; Wapstra, Erik; Weimerskirch, Henri; While, Geoffrey M.; Baudisch, Annette; Flatt, Thomas; Coulson, Tim; Gaillard, Jean Michel.

In: Ecology letters, Vol. 22, No. 2, 01.02.2019, p. 342-353.

Research output: Contribution to journalLetter

Colchero, F, Jones, OR, Conde, DA, Hodgson, D, Zajitschek, F, Schmidt, BR, Malo, AF, Alberts, SC, Becker, PH, Bouwhuis, S, Bronikowski, AM, De Vleeschouwer, KM, Delahay, RJ, Dummermuth, S, Fernández-Duque, E, Frisenvænge, J, Hesselsøe, M, Larson, S, Lemaître, JF, McDonald, J, Miller, DAW, O'Donnell, C, Packer, C, Raboy, BE, Reading, CJ, Wapstra, E, Weimerskirch, H, While, GM, Baudisch, A, Flatt, T, Coulson, T & Gaillard, JM 2019, 'The diversity of population responses to environmental change', Ecology letters, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 342-353. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13195
Colchero F, Jones OR, Conde DA, Hodgson D, Zajitschek F, Schmidt BR et al. The diversity of population responses to environmental change. Ecology letters. 2019 Feb 1;22(2):342-353. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13195
Colchero, Fernando ; Jones, Owen R ; Conde, Dalia A. ; Hodgson, David ; Zajitschek, Felix ; Schmidt, Benedikt R. ; Malo, Aurelio F. ; Alberts, Susan C. ; Becker, Peter H. ; Bouwhuis, Sandra ; Bronikowski, Anne M. ; De Vleeschouwer, Kristel M. ; Delahay, Richard J. ; Dummermuth, Stefan ; Fernández-Duque, Eduardo ; Frisenvænge, John ; Hesselsøe, Martin ; Larson, Sam ; Lemaître, Jean François ; McDonald, Jennifer ; Miller, David A.W. ; O'Donnell, Colin ; Packer, Craig ; Raboy, Becky E. ; Reading, Chris J. ; Wapstra, Erik ; Weimerskirch, Henri ; While, Geoffrey M. ; Baudisch, Annette ; Flatt, Thomas ; Coulson, Tim ; Gaillard, Jean Michel. / The diversity of population responses to environmental change. In: Ecology letters. 2019 ; Vol. 22, No. 2. pp. 342-353.
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