The diversity of population responses to environmental change

Fernando Colchero; Owen R Jones; Dalia A. Conde; David Hodgson; Felix Zajitschek; Benedikt R. Schmidt; Aurelio F. Malo; Susan C. Alberts; Peter H. Becker; Sandra Bouwhuis; Anne M. Bronikowski; Kristel M. De Vleeschouwer; Richard J. Delahay; Stefan Dummermuth; Eduardo Fernández-Duque; John Frisenvænge; Martin Hesselsøe; Sam Larson; Jean François Lemaître; Jennifer McDonald; David A.W. Miller; Colin O'Donnell; Craig Packer; Becky E. Raboy; Chris J. Reading; Erik Wapstra; Henri Weimerskirch; Geoffrey M. While; Annette Baudisch; Thomas Flatt; Tim Coulson; Jean Michel Gaillard

doi:10.1111/ele.13195

The diversity of population responses to environmental change

Fernando Colchero, Owen R Jones, Dalia A. Conde, David Hodgson, Felix Zajitschek, Benedikt R. Schmidt, Aurelio F. Malo, Susan C. Alberts, Peter H. Becker, Sandra Bouwhuis, Anne M. Bronikowski, Kristel M. De Vleeschouwer, Richard J. Delahay, Stefan Dummermuth, Eduardo Fernández-Duque, John Frisenvænge, Martin Hesselsøe, Sam Larson, Jean François Lemaître, Jennifer McDonaldDavid A.W. Miller, Colin O'Donnell, Craig Packer, Becky E. Raboy, Chris J. Reading, Erik Wapstra, Henri Weimerskirch, Geoffrey M. While, Annette Baudisch, Thomas Flatt, Tim Coulson, Jean Michel Gaillard

Ecology, Evolution and Behavior

Research output: Contribution to journal › Letter › peer-review

49 Scopus citations

Abstract

The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	342-353
Number of pages	12
Journal	Ecology letters
Volume	22
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13195
State	Published - Feb 2019

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We thank Jeanne Altmann for access to the baboon data and Josephine Pemberton, Tim Clutton-Brock and Loeske Kruuk for access to the red deer data, and D.H. Nussey for comments. We acknowledge funding from the Max Planck Society, Marie Curie Fellowship (PIEF-GA-2008-220322), ERC grant number 249872, the German Research Foundation (Be 916/3 to 9), the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF PP00P3-133641), the National Science Foundation (BCS-1232349, BCS-1219368, BCS-0621020, IOS 0919200), National Institute of Aging (P30 AG-012836, P01 AG031719 and R01 AG034513), Ramon y Cajal Research Grant RYC-2016-21114, Wenner-Gren Foundation, Leakey Foundation, National Geographic Society, Zoological Society of San Diego, University of Pennsylvania and Argentinean National Council of Research. We are very grateful to the three reviewers for their constructive comments on this manuscript.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Keywords

Age-structured population models
Bayesian inference
fecundity
mortality
survival

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Publisher link

10.1111/ele.13195

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6378614

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Colchero, F., Jones, OR., Conde, D. A., Hodgson, D., Zajitschek, F., Schmidt, B. R., Malo, A. F., Alberts, S. C., Becker, P. H., Bouwhuis, S., Bronikowski, A. M., De Vleeschouwer, K. M., Delahay, R. J., Dummermuth, S., Fernández-Duque, E., Frisenvænge, J., Hesselsøe, M., Larson, S., Lemaître, J. F., ... Gaillard, J. M. (2019). The diversity of population responses to environmental change. Ecology letters, 22(2), 342-353. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13195

Colchero, F, Jones, OR, Conde, DA, Hodgson, D, Zajitschek, F, Schmidt, BR, Malo, AF, Alberts, SC, Becker, PH, Bouwhuis, S, Bronikowski, AM, De Vleeschouwer, KM, Delahay, RJ, Dummermuth, S, Fernández-Duque, E, Frisenvænge, J, Hesselsøe, M, Larson, S, Lemaître, JF, McDonald, J, Miller, DAW, O'Donnell, C, Packer, C, Raboy, BE, Reading, CJ, Wapstra, E, Weimerskirch, H, While, GM, Baudisch, A, Flatt, T, Coulson, T & Gaillard, JM 2019, 'The diversity of population responses to environmental change', Ecology letters, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 342-353. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13195

@article{18e4f64c54594bf2afddeff82b1dbe80,

title = "The diversity of population responses to environmental change",

abstract = "The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.",

keywords = "Age-structured population models, Bayesian inference, fecundity, mortality, survival",

author = "Fernando Colchero and Owen R Jones and Conde, {Dalia A.} and David Hodgson and Felix Zajitschek and Schmidt, {Benedikt R.} and Malo, {Aurelio F.} and Alberts, {Susan C.} and Becker, {Peter H.} and Sandra Bouwhuis and Bronikowski, {Anne M.} and {De Vleeschouwer}, {Kristel M.} and Delahay, {Richard J.} and Stefan Dummermuth and Eduardo Fern{\'a}ndez-Duque and John Frisenv{\ae}nge and Martin Hessels{\o}e and Sam Larson and Lema{\^i}tre, {Jean Fran{\c c}ois} and Jennifer McDonald and Miller, {David A.W.} and Colin O'Donnell and Craig Packer and Raboy, {Becky E.} and Reading, {Chris J.} and Erik Wapstra and Henri Weimerskirch and While, {Geoffrey M.} and Annette Baudisch and Thomas Flatt and Tim Coulson and Gaillard, {Jean Michel}",

note = "Funding Information: We thank Jeanne Altmann for access to the baboon data and Josephine Pemberton, Tim Clutton-Brock and Loeske Kruuk for access to the red deer data, and D.H. Nussey for comments. We acknowledge funding from the Max Planck Society, Marie Curie Fellowship (PIEF-GA-2008-220322), ERC grant number 249872, the German Research Foundation (Be 916/3 to 9), the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF PP00P3-133641), the National Science Foundation (BCS-1232349, BCS-1219368, BCS-0621020, IOS 0919200), National Institute of Aging (P30 AG-012836, P01 AG031719 and R01 AG034513), Ramon y Cajal Research Grant RYC-2016-21114, Wenner-Gren Foundation, Leakey Foundation, National Geographic Society, Zoological Society of San Diego, University of Pennsylvania and Argentinean National Council of Research. We are very grateful to the three reviewers for their constructive comments on this manuscript. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd",

year = "2019",

month = feb,

doi = "10.1111/ele.13195",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "22",

pages = "342--353",

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T1 - The diversity of population responses to environmental change

AU - Colchero, Fernando

AU - Jones, Owen R

AU - Conde, Dalia A.

AU - Hodgson, David

AU - Zajitschek, Felix

AU - Schmidt, Benedikt R.

AU - Malo, Aurelio F.

AU - Alberts, Susan C.

AU - Becker, Peter H.

AU - Bouwhuis, Sandra

AU - Bronikowski, Anne M.

AU - De Vleeschouwer, Kristel M.

AU - Delahay, Richard J.

AU - Dummermuth, Stefan

AU - Fernández-Duque, Eduardo

AU - Frisenvænge, John

AU - Hesselsøe, Martin

AU - Larson, Sam

AU - Lemaître, Jean François

AU - McDonald, Jennifer

AU - Miller, David A.W.

AU - O'Donnell, Colin

AU - Packer, Craig

AU - Raboy, Becky E.

AU - Reading, Chris J.

AU - Wapstra, Erik

AU - Weimerskirch, Henri

AU - While, Geoffrey M.

AU - Baudisch, Annette

AU - Flatt, Thomas

AU - Coulson, Tim

AU - Gaillard, Jean Michel

N1 - Funding Information: We thank Jeanne Altmann for access to the baboon data and Josephine Pemberton, Tim Clutton-Brock and Loeske Kruuk for access to the red deer data, and D.H. Nussey for comments. We acknowledge funding from the Max Planck Society, Marie Curie Fellowship (PIEF-GA-2008-220322), ERC grant number 249872, the German Research Foundation (Be 916/3 to 9), the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF PP00P3-133641), the National Science Foundation (BCS-1232349, BCS-1219368, BCS-0621020, IOS 0919200), National Institute of Aging (P30 AG-012836, P01 AG031719 and R01 AG034513), Ramon y Cajal Research Grant RYC-2016-21114, Wenner-Gren Foundation, Leakey Foundation, National Geographic Society, Zoological Society of San Diego, University of Pennsylvania and Argentinean National Council of Research. We are very grateful to the three reviewers for their constructive comments on this manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2018 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd

PY - 2019/2

Y1 - 2019/2

N2 - The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.

AB - The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.

KW - Age-structured population models

KW - Bayesian inference

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KW - mortality

KW - survival

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ER -

The diversity of population responses to environmental change

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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