Supersymmetry in light of 1/fb of LHC data

We update previous frequentist analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1 parameter spaces to include the public results of searches for supersymmetric signals using ~1/fb of LHC data recorded by ATLAS and CMS and ~0.3/fb of data recorded by LHCb in addition to electroweak precision and B-physics observables. We also include the constraints imposed by the cosmological dark matter density and the XENON100 search for spin-independent dark matter scattering. The LHC data set includes ATLAS and CMS searches for jets + E_T events and for the heavier MSSM Higgs bosons, and the upper limits on BR(B_s → μ⁺μ^-) from LHCb and CMS. The absences of jets + E_T signals in the LHC data favour heavier mass spectra than in our previous analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1, which may be reconciled with (g -2)_μ if tanβ ~ 40, a possibility that is, however, under pressure from heavy Higgs searches and the upper limits on BR(B_s →μ⁺μ^-). As a result, the p-value for the CMSSM fit is reduced to ~15(38)%, and that for the NUHM1 to ~16(38)%, to be compared with ~9(49)% for the Standard Model limit of the CMSSM for the same set of observables (dropping (g -2)_μ), ignoring the dark matter relic density. We discuss the sensitivities of the fits to the (g -2)_μ and BR(b → sγ) constraints, contrasting fits with and without the (g -2)_μ constraint, and combining the theoretical and experimental errors for BR(b →sγ) linearly or in quadrature. We present predictions for m_g, BR(B_s →μ⁺μ^-), M_h and M_A, and update predictions for spin-independent dark matter scattering, incorporating the uncertainty in the π-nucleon σ term Σ_πN. Finally, we present predictions based on our fits for the likely thresholds for sparticle pair production in e⁺e^- collisions in the CMSSM and NUHM1.