Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

Sayedeh Sara Sayedi; Benjamin W. Abbott; Brett F. Thornton; Jennifer M. Frederick; Jorien E. Vonk; Paul Overduin; Christina Schädel; Edward A.G. Schuur; Annie Bourbonnais; Nikita Demidov; Anatoly Gavrilov; Shengping He; Gustaf Hugelius; Martin Jakobsson; Miriam C. Jones; Dong Joo Joung; Gleb Kraev; Robie W. Macdonald; A. David McGuire; Cuicui Mu; Matt O’Regan; Kathryn M. Schreiner; Christian Stranne; Elena Pizhankova; Alexander Vasiliev; Sebastian Westermann; Jay P. Zarnetske; Tingjun Zhang; Mehran Ghandehari; Sarah Baeumler; Brian C. Brown; Rebecca J. Frei

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29

Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

Sayedeh Sara Sayedi, Benjamin W. Abbott, Brett F. Thornton, Jennifer M. Frederick, Jorien E. Vonk, Paul Overduin, Christina Schädel, Edward A.G. Schuur, Annie Bourbonnais, Nikita Demidov, Anatoly Gavrilov, Shengping He, Gustaf Hugelius, Martin Jakobsson, Miriam C. Jones, Dong Joo Joung, Gleb Kraev, Robie W. Macdonald, A. David McGuire, Cuicui MuMatt O’Regan, Kathryn M. Schreiner, Christian Stranne, Elena Pizhankova, Alexander Vasiliev, Sebastian Westermann, Jay P. Zarnetske, Tingjun Zhang, Mehran Ghandehari, Sarah Baeumler, Brian C. Brown, Rebecca J. Frei

Chemistry & Biochemistry

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Abstract

The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH₄), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH₄. Current fluxes of CH₄ and carbon dioxide (CO₂) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr⁻¹, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO₂-equivalent (CO₂e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO₂e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	124075
Journal	Environmental Research Letters
Volume	15
Issue number	12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29
State	Published - Dec 2020

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd

Keywords

Carbon stocks
Climate change
Expert assessment
Subsea permafrost

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29

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Sayedi, S. S., Abbott, B. W., Thornton, B. F., Frederick, J. M., Vonk, J. E., Overduin, P., Schädel, C., Schuur, E. A. G., Bourbonnais, A., Demidov, N., Gavrilov, A., He, S., Hugelius, G., Jakobsson, M., Jones, M. C., Joung, D. J., Kraev, G., Macdonald, R. W., David McGuire, A., ... Frei, R. J. (2020). Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment. Environmental Research Letters, 15(12), Article 124075. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29

Sayedi, SS, Abbott, BW, Thornton, BF, Frederick, JM, Vonk, JE, Overduin, P, Schädel, C, Schuur, EAG, Bourbonnais, A, Demidov, N, Gavrilov, A, He, S, Hugelius, G, Jakobsson, M, Jones, MC, Joung, DJ, Kraev, G, Macdonald, RW, David McGuire, A, Mu, C, O’Regan, M, Schreiner, KM, Stranne, C, Pizhankova, E, Vasiliev, A, Westermann, S, Zarnetske, JP, Zhang, T, Ghandehari, M, Baeumler, S, Brown, BC & Frei, RJ 2020, 'Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 15, no. 12, 124075. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29

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title = "Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment",

abstract = "The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr−1, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO2e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO2e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.",

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author = "Sayedi, {Sayedeh Sara} and Abbott, {Benjamin W.} and Thornton, {Brett F.} and Frederick, {Jennifer M.} and Vonk, {Jorien E.} and Paul Overduin and Christina Sch{\"a}del and Schuur, {Edward A.G.} and Annie Bourbonnais and Nikita Demidov and Anatoly Gavrilov and Shengping He and Gustaf Hugelius and Martin Jakobsson and Jones, {Miriam C.} and Joung, {Dong Joo} and Gleb Kraev and Macdonald, {Robie W.} and {David McGuire}, A. and Cuicui Mu and Matt O{\textquoteright}Regan and Schreiner, {Kathryn M.} and Christian Stranne and Elena Pizhankova and Alexander Vasiliev and Sebastian Westermann and Zarnetske, {Jay P.} and Tingjun Zhang and Mehran Ghandehari and Sarah Baeumler and Brown, {Brian C.} and Frei, {Rebecca J.}",

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doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29",

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AU - Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara

AU - Abbott, Benjamin W.

AU - Thornton, Brett F.

AU - Frederick, Jennifer M.

AU - Vonk, Jorien E.

AU - Overduin, Paul

AU - Schädel, Christina

AU - Schuur, Edward A.G.

AU - Bourbonnais, Annie

AU - Demidov, Nikita

AU - Gavrilov, Anatoly

AU - He, Shengping

AU - Hugelius, Gustaf

AU - Jakobsson, Martin

AU - Jones, Miriam C.

AU - Joung, Dong Joo

AU - Kraev, Gleb

AU - Macdonald, Robie W.

AU - David McGuire, A.

AU - Mu, Cuicui

AU - O’Regan, Matt

AU - Schreiner, Kathryn M.

AU - Stranne, Christian

AU - Pizhankova, Elena

AU - Vasiliev, Alexander

AU - Westermann, Sebastian

AU - Zarnetske, Jay P.

AU - Zhang, Tingjun

AU - Ghandehari, Mehran

AU - Baeumler, Sarah

AU - Brown, Brian C.

AU - Frei, Rebecca J.

PY - 2020/12

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N2 - The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr−1, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO2e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO2e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.

AB - The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr−1, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO2e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO2e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.

KW - Carbon stocks

KW - Climate change

KW - Expert assessment

KW - Subsea permafrost

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JO - Environmental Research Letters

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ER -

Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

Publisher link

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