Shifting demand for winter outdoor recreation along the North Shore of Lake Superior under variable rates of climate change: A finite-mixture modeling approach

Jordan W. Smith, Erin Seekamp, Allie McCreary, Mae Davenport, Mark Kanazawa, Kerry Holmberg, Bruce Wilson, John Nieber

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

20 Scopus citations

Abstract

Many communities located in natural resource rich landscapes have transitioned to tourism-based economies. This transition might not be sustainable, as climate and environmental change have unknown effects on the visitation patterns of outdoor recreationists and tourists. We address this uncertainty by estimating shifts in the demand for outdoor recreation destinations along Minnesota's North Shore region of Lake Superior under a range of projected climatic and environmental conditions. We also employ a finite-mixture modeling approach to capture the preference heterogeneity across North Shore visitors. Our findings indicate projected climate and environmental changes are not likely to significantly affect visitation patterns in the next 20. years. However, utilizing a finite-mixture modeling approach enabled us to identify distinct types of visitors with divergent visitation behaviors under altered climate and environmental conditions. Our findings suggest that the demand for outdoor recreation along the North Shore will be relatively stable in the near future, however different types of visitors will respond to warming winter conditions in divergent ways. Shifting visitation patterns under climate and environmental change may have more drastic alterations to the economic well-being of the region under a longer planning horizon.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1-13
Number of pages13
JournalEcological Economics
Volume123
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 1 2016

Keywords

  • Contingent behavior
  • Outdoor recreation demand
  • Place meanings
  • Risk perceptions

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Shifting demand for winter outdoor recreation along the North Shore of Lake Superior under variable rates of climate change: A finite-mixture modeling approach'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this