Serum concentration of cystatin C and risk of end-stage renal disease in diabetes

OBJECTIVE - Patients with diabetes have a high risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We examined whether prediction of this outcome, according to chronic kidney disease (CKD) staging by creatinine-based estimates of the glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcreat), is improved by further staging with serum cystatin C-based estimates (eGFRcyst). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - Patients with diabetes in CKD stages 1-3 were selected from three cohorts: two from Joslin Diabetes Center, one with type 1 diabetes (N = 364) and one with type 2 diabetes (N = 402), and the third from the Finnish Diabetic Nephropathy (FinnDiane) Study of type 1 ( N = 399). Baseline serum concentrations of creatinine and cystatin C were measured in all patients. Follow-up averaged 8-10 years and onsets of ESRD (n = 246) and death unrelated to ESRD (n = 159) were ascertained. RESULTS - Although CKD staging by eGFRcyst was concordant with that by eGFRcreat for 62% of Joslin patients and 73% of FinnDiane patients, those given a higher stage by eGFRcyst than eGFRcreat had a significantly higher risk of ESRD than those with concordant staging in all three cohorts (hazard ratio 2.3 [95% CI 1.8-3.1]). Similarly, patients at a lower stage by eGFRcyst than by eGFRcreat had a lower risk than those with concordant staging (0.30 [0.13-0.68]). Deaths unrelated to ESRD followed the same pattern, but differences were not as large. CONCLUSIONS - In patients with diabetes, CKD staging based on eGFRcyst significantly improves ESRD risk stratification based on eGFRcreat. This conclusion can be generalized to patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes and to diabetic patients in the U.S. and Finland.