Sensitivity analysis and probabilistic re-entry modeling for debris using high dimensional model representation based uncertainty treatment

Piyush M. Mehta, Martin Kubicek, Edmondo Minisci, Massimiliano Vasile

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Scopus citations

Abstract

Well-known tools developed for satellite and debris re-entry perform break-up and trajectory simulations in a deterministic sense and do not perform any uncertainty treatment. The treatment of uncertainties associated with the re-entry of a space object requires a probabilistic approach. A Monte Carlo campaign is the intuitive approach to performing a probabilistic analysis, however, it is computationally very expensive. In this work, we use a recently developed approach based on a new derivation of the high dimensional model representation method for implementing a computationally efficient probabilistic analysis approach for re-entry. Both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties that affect aerodynamic trajectory and ground impact location are considered. The method is applicable to both controlled and un-controlled re-entry scenarios. The resulting ground impact distributions are far from the typically used Gaussian or ellipsoid distributions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)193-211
Number of pages19
JournalAdvances in Space Research
Volume59
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2017

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Funding for Piyush Mehta is provided by the European Commission through the Marie Curie Initial Training Network (ITN) STARDUST under Grant No. 317185 . Partial support for Martin Kubicek is provided by ’OPTIMAD Engineering Srl’. The authors would like to acknowledge the use of the EPSRC funded ARCHIE-WeSt High Performance Computer ( www.archie-west.ac.uk ), EPSRC Grant No. EP/K000586/1 .

Funding Information:
Funding for Piyush Mehta is provided by the European Commission through the Marie Curie Initial Training Network (ITN) STARDUST under Grant No. 317185. Partial support for Martin Kubicek is provided by ?OPTIMAD Engineering Srl?. The authors would like to acknowledge the use of the EPSRC funded ARCHIE-WeSt High Performance Computer (www.archie-west.ac.uk), EPSRC Grant No. EP/K000586/1.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 COSPAR

Keywords

  • Debris
  • Ground-impact
  • Modeling
  • Probabilistic-distribution
  • Re-entry

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