SEMI-MARKOV MODEL FOR PRIMARY HEALTH CARE MANPOWER SUPPLY PREDICTION.

In this paper we develop a semi-Markov formulation for modelling transitions of physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants between different settings and locations within a geographic area. The model predicts the supply of primary care providers over a planning horizon. We then compare the model predictions with estimates of future demand and need for primary care for a community. Statistical tests for validation and sensitivity analysis of the model are also performed to establish the appropriateness of the semi-Markov approach. With the likelihood of an oversupply of physicians during this decade, the model offers a useful tool for health planners, administrators, and regulators, for objective decision making. The model is designed as a decision support tool for those involved with primary health care planning issues.