SEMI-MARKOV MODEL FOR PRIMARY HEALTH CARE MANPOWER SUPPLY PREDICTION.

Vandan Trivedi, Ira Moscovice, Richard Bass, John Brooks

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

10 Scopus citations

Abstract

In this paper we develop a semi-Markov formulation for modelling transitions of physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants between different settings and locations within a geographic area. The model predicts the supply of primary care providers over a planning horizon. We then compare the model predictions with estimates of future demand and need for primary care for a community. Statistical tests for validation and sensitivity analysis of the model are also performed to establish the appropriateness of the semi-Markov approach. With the likelihood of an oversupply of physicians during this decade, the model offers a useful tool for health planners, administrators, and regulators, for objective decision making. The model is designed as a decision support tool for those involved with primary health care planning issues.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)149-160
Number of pages12
JournalManagement Science
Volume33
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 1987
Externally publishedYes

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