Countries in which foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) is endemic may face bans on the export of FMD‐susceptible livestock and products because of the associated risk for transmission of FMD virus. Risk assessment is an essential tool for demonstrating the fitness of one’s goods for the international marketplace and for improving animal health. However, it is difficult to obtain the necessary data for such risk assessments in many countries where FMD is present. This study bridged the gaps of traditional participatory and expert elicitation approaches by partnering with veterinarians from the National Veterinary Services of Kenya (n = 13) and Uganda (n = 10) enrolled in an extended capacity‐building program to systematically collect rich, local knowledge in a format appropriate for formal quantitative analysis. Participants mapped risk pathways and quantified variables that determine the risk of infection among cattle at slaughter originating from each of four beef production systems in each country. Findings highlighted that risk processes differ between management systems, that disease and sale are not always independent events, and that events on the risk pathway are influenced by the actions and motivations of value chain actors. The results provide necessary information for evaluating the risk of FMD among cattle pre‐harvest in Kenya and Uganda and provide a framework for similar evaluation in other endemic settings.
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Author Contributions: Conceptualization, J.A. and A.M.P.; methodology, J.A.; formal analysis, J.A.; investigation, J.A.; writing—original draft, J.A.; writing—review and editing, J.A., A.M.P., and K.M.R.; supervision, A.M.P.; project administration, J.A. and A.M.P.; funding acquisition, A.M.P. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. Funding: This project has been supported in part by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grant number OPP1211169). Under the grant conditions of the Foundation, a Creative Commons Attrib‐ ution 4.0 Generic License has already been assigned to the Author Accepted Manuscript version that might arise from this submission. Additional support was received from the USDA National Needs (grant 2014‐38413‐21825) and from the MnDRIVE Global Food Ventures Graduate Student Professional Development award.
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- Expert elicitation
- Foot‐and‐mouth disease
- Participatory methods
- Risk assessment