Risk assessment models for pink bollworm establishment in southeastern US cotton

Pink bollworm (PBW), Pectinophora gossypiella (Saunders) remains a serious pest of cotton worldwide and in the southwestern US. This project strives to determine the extent that PBW can invade and establish economic infestations in cotton producing areas within the southeastern US. As part of the risk assessment, we first identify regions or states where survival and reproduction of PBW is most likely. Climate matching software (CLIMEX) was used for three independent analyses to determine where PBW might establish and which environmental factors (i.e., extreme heat, cold, drought, or moisture) might prevent establishment. The three methods gave similar results. In the southeast, climatic conditions in Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina are most suitable for PBW establishment. Within the region, establishment may be prevented by cold stress towards the north and wet stress towards the southeast.