Representation of Confidence in Assurance Cases Using the Beta Distribution

Lian Duan; Sanjai Rayadurgam; Mats Heimdahl; Oleg Sokolsky; Insup Lee

doi:10.1109/HASE.2016.52

Representation of Confidence in Assurance Cases Using the Beta Distribution

Lian Duan, Sanjai Rayadurgam, Mats Heimdahl, Oleg Sokolsky, Insup Lee

Computer Science and Engineering

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

21 Scopus citations

Abstract

Assurance cases are used to document an argument that a system - such as a critical software system - satisfies some desirable property (e.g., safety, security, or reliability). Demonstrating high confidence that the claims made based on an assurance case can be trusted is crucial to the success of the case. Researchers have proposed quantification of confidence as a Baconian probability ratio of eliminated concerns about the assurance case to the total number of identified concerns. In this paper, we extend their work by mapping this discrete ratio to a continuous probability distribution - a beta distribution - enabling different visualizations of the confidence in a claim. Further, the beta distribution allows us to quantify and visualize theuncertainty associated with the expressed confidence. Additionally, by transforming the assurance case into a reasoning structure, we show how confidence calculations can be performed using beta distributions.

Original language	English (US)
Title of host publication	Proceedings - 17th IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2016
Editors	Radu Babiceanu, Helene Waeselynck, Jie Xu, Raymond A. Paul, Bojan Cukic
Publisher	IEEE Computer Society
Pages	86-93
Number of pages	8
ISBN (Electronic)	9781467399128
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/HASE.2016.52
State	Published - Mar 1 2016
Event	17th IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2016 - Orlando, United States Duration: Jan 7 2016 → Jan 9 2016

Publication series

Name	Proceedings of IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering
Volume	2016-March
ISSN (Print)	1530-2059

Other

Other	17th IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2016
Country/Territory	United States
City	Orlando
Period	1/7/16 → 1/9/16

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 IEEE.

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10.1109/HASE.2016.52

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Duan, L., Rayadurgam, S., Heimdahl, M., Sokolsky, O., & Lee, I. (2016). Representation of Confidence in Assurance Cases Using the Beta Distribution. In R. Babiceanu, H. Waeselynck, J. Xu, R. A. Paul, & B. Cukic (Eds.), Proceedings - 17th IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2016 (pp. 86-93). Article 7423138 (Proceedings of IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering; Vol. 2016-March). IEEE Computer Society. https://doi.org/10.1109/HASE.2016.52

Representation of Confidence in Assurance Cases Using the Beta Distribution. / Duan, Lian; Rayadurgam, Sanjai ; Heimdahl, Mats et al.
Proceedings - 17th IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2016. ed. / Radu Babiceanu; Helene Waeselynck; Jie Xu; Raymond A. Paul; Bojan Cukic. IEEE Computer Society, 2016. p. 86-93 7423138 (Proceedings of IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering; Vol. 2016-March).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

Duan, L, Rayadurgam, S , Heimdahl, M, Sokolsky, O & Lee, I 2016, Representation of Confidence in Assurance Cases Using the Beta Distribution. in R Babiceanu, H Waeselynck, J Xu, RA Paul & B Cukic (eds), Proceedings - 17th IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2016., 7423138, Proceedings of IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering, vol. 2016-March, IEEE Computer Society, pp. 86-93, 17th IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2016, Orlando, United States, 1/7/16. https://doi.org/10.1109/HASE.2016.52

Duan L, Rayadurgam S , Heimdahl M, Sokolsky O, Lee I. Representation of Confidence in Assurance Cases Using the Beta Distribution. In Babiceanu R, Waeselynck H, Xu J, Paul RA, Cukic B, editors, Proceedings - 17th IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2016. IEEE Computer Society. 2016. p. 86-93. 7423138. (Proceedings of IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering). doi: 10.1109/HASE.2016.52

Duan, Lian ; Rayadurgam, Sanjai ; Heimdahl, Mats et al. / Representation of Confidence in Assurance Cases Using the Beta Distribution. Proceedings - 17th IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2016. editor / Radu Babiceanu ; Helene Waeselynck ; Jie Xu ; Raymond A. Paul ; Bojan Cukic. IEEE Computer Society, 2016. pp. 86-93 (Proceedings of IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering).

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Representation of Confidence in Assurance Cases Using the Beta Distribution

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