Regional water temperature characteristics of lakes subjected to climate change

A deterministic, validated, one-dimensional, unsteady-state lake water quality model was linked to a daily weather data base to simulate daily water temperature profiles in lakes over a period of twenty-five (1955-79) years. Twenty seven classes of lakes which are characteristic for the north-central U.S. were investigated. Output from a global climate model (GISS) was used to modify the weather data base to account for a doubling of atmospheric CO₂. The simulations predict that, after climate change, epilimnetic temperatures will be higher but increase less than air temperature, hypolimnetic temperatures in seasonally stratified dimictic lakes will be largely unchanged or even lower than at present, evaporative water loss will be increased by as much as 300 mm for the season, onset of stratification will occur earlier and overturn later in the season, and overall lake stability will become greater in spring and summer.