Regional Hotspots of Lake Evaporation Changes Driven by Surface Energy Balance and Climate Interactions

Lakes are a critical component of the terrestrial hydrological cycle, yet their sensitivity to future climate warming—especially in terms of evaporation ((Formula presented.))—remains insufficiently understood. Here, we use the Lake, Ice, Snow, and Sediment Simulator within the Community Land Model to project the responses of global lake (Formula presented.) to a warming climate under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) by the end of the 21st century. Simulations reveal a global mean increase of 13% in lake (Formula presented.), with the largest absolute increases occurring in low- and mid-latitude regions, driven by enhanced energy availability. In contrast, high-latitude lakes exhibit the greatest relative increases due to reduced snow and ice cover, leading to lower albedo and higher solar absorption. By analyzing changes in long-term mean and interannual variability, we identify regional hotspots of (Formula presented.) sensitivity, which are concentrated in polar regions such as Greenland, Alaska, and Northern Europe. These hotspots do not always align with areas of the greatest absolute (Formula presented.) increases, underscoring the need for lake-specific assessments of climate vulnerability. Using the Geographical Detector Model, we show that vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is the dominant individual driver of hotspot patterns. Moreover, strong synergistic interactions among VPD, radiation and wind speed reveal that (Formula presented.) responses are governed by the combined influence of radiative and atmospheric drivers, rather than by individual factors alone. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for both surface energy balance changes and compound climate drivers when assessing the sensitivity of inland waters to global warming.