The current investigation applied a Bayesian modeling approach to a unique experimental transmission study to estimate the occurrence of transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) during the incubation phase amongst group-housed pigs. The primary outcome was that transmission occurred approximately one day prior to development of visible signs of disease (posterior median 21 hours, 95% CI: 1.1–45.0). Updated disease state durations were incorporated into a simulation model to examine the importance of addressing preclinical transmission in the face of robust response measures. Simulation of FMD outbreaks in the US pig production sector demonstrated that including a preclinical infectious period of one day would result in a 40% increase in the median number of farms affected (166 additional farms and 664,912 pigs euthanized) compared to the scenario of no preclinical transmission, assuming suboptimal outbreak response. These findings emphasize the importance of considering transmission of FMD during the incubation phase in modeling and response planning.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
This project was funded by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) ARS-CRIS Project 1940-32000-057-00D. Additional funding came from two separate interagency agreements between the Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) and the Science and Technology Directorate of the US Department of Homeland Security (award number HSHQDC-11-X-00189), and with the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. K.T. and S.Y. are recipients of a Plum Island Animal Disease Center Research Participation Program fellowship, administered by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) through an interagency agreement with the US Department of Energy. None of the funding sources had influence upon design or performance of experimental study, interpretation of results or writing of the manuscript. Ethan J. Hartwig, George R. Smoliga and Steve J. Pauszek are thanked for supporting sample processing and laboratory analyses.
© 2019, The Author(s).