TY - JOUR
T1 - Projected landscape-scale repercussions of global action for climate and biodiversity protection
AU - von Jeetze, Patrick José
AU - Weindl, Isabelle
AU - Johnson, Justin Andrew
AU - Borrelli, Pasquale
AU - Panagos, Panos
AU - Molina Bacca, Edna J.
AU - Karstens, Kristine
AU - Humpenöder, Florian
AU - Dietrich, Jan Philipp
AU - Minoli, Sara
AU - Müller, Christoph
AU - Lotze-Campen, Hermann
AU - Popp, Alexander
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).
PY - 2023/12
Y1 - 2023/12
N2 - Land conservation and increased carbon uptake on land are fundamental to achieving the ambitious targets of the climate and biodiversity conventions. Yet, it remains largely unknown how such ambitions, along with an increasing demand for agricultural products, could drive landscape-scale changes and affect other key regulating nature’s contributions to people (NCP) that sustain land productivity outside conservation priority areas. By using an integrated, globally consistent modelling approach, we show that ambitious carbon-focused land restoration action and the enlargement of protected areas alone may be insufficient to reverse negative trends in landscape heterogeneity, pollination supply, and soil loss. However, we also find that these actions could be combined with dedicated interventions that support critical NCP and biodiversity conservation outside of protected areas. In particular, our models indicate that conserving at least 20% semi-natural habitat within farmed landscapes could primarily be achieved by spatially relocating cropland outside conservation priority areas, without additional carbon losses from land-use change, primary land conversion or reductions in agricultural productivity.
AB - Land conservation and increased carbon uptake on land are fundamental to achieving the ambitious targets of the climate and biodiversity conventions. Yet, it remains largely unknown how such ambitions, along with an increasing demand for agricultural products, could drive landscape-scale changes and affect other key regulating nature’s contributions to people (NCP) that sustain land productivity outside conservation priority areas. By using an integrated, globally consistent modelling approach, we show that ambitious carbon-focused land restoration action and the enlargement of protected areas alone may be insufficient to reverse negative trends in landscape heterogeneity, pollination supply, and soil loss. However, we also find that these actions could be combined with dedicated interventions that support critical NCP and biodiversity conservation outside of protected areas. In particular, our models indicate that conserving at least 20% semi-natural habitat within farmed landscapes could primarily be achieved by spatially relocating cropland outside conservation priority areas, without additional carbon losses from land-use change, primary land conversion or reductions in agricultural productivity.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41467-023-38043-1
DO - 10.1038/s41467-023-38043-1
M3 - Article
C2 - 37193693
AN - SCOPUS:85159405086
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 14
JO - Nature communications
JF - Nature communications
IS - 1
M1 - 2515
ER -