TY - JOUR
T1 - Productivity of rainfed wheat as affected by climate change scenario in northeastern Punjab, India
AU - Vashisht, Bharat Bhushan
AU - Mulla, D. J.
AU - Jalota, S. K.
AU - Kaur, Samanpreet
AU - Kaur, Harsimran
AU - Singh, Sher
PY - 2013/10
Y1 - 2013/10
N2 - Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is grown as a rainfed crop in the sub-mountainous region of the Punjab state of India, with low crop and water productivity. The present study aims to assess the effect of climate change scenario (A1B) derived from PRECIS-a regional climate model-on wheat yield and water productivity. After minimizing bias in the model climate data for mid-century (2021-2050), evapotranspiration (ET) and yield of wheat crop were simulated using Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, version 4.5, model. In the changed climate, increased temperature would cause reduction in wheat yield to the extent of 4, 32 and 61 % in the mid-century periods between 2021-2030, 2031-2040 and 2041-2050, respectively, by increasing water stress and decreasing utilization efficiency of photosynthetically active radiation. The decreases in crop water productivity would be 40, 56 and 76 %, respectively, which are caused by decreased yield and increased ET. Planting of wheat up to November 25 till the years 2030-2031 seems to be helpful to mitigate the climate change effect, but not beyond that.
AB - Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is grown as a rainfed crop in the sub-mountainous region of the Punjab state of India, with low crop and water productivity. The present study aims to assess the effect of climate change scenario (A1B) derived from PRECIS-a regional climate model-on wheat yield and water productivity. After minimizing bias in the model climate data for mid-century (2021-2050), evapotranspiration (ET) and yield of wheat crop were simulated using Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, version 4.5, model. In the changed climate, increased temperature would cause reduction in wheat yield to the extent of 4, 32 and 61 % in the mid-century periods between 2021-2030, 2031-2040 and 2041-2050, respectively, by increasing water stress and decreasing utilization efficiency of photosynthetically active radiation. The decreases in crop water productivity would be 40, 56 and 76 %, respectively, which are caused by decreased yield and increased ET. Planting of wheat up to November 25 till the years 2030-2031 seems to be helpful to mitigate the climate change effect, but not beyond that.
KW - Bias correction
KW - Climate change scenario
KW - DSSAT model
KW - Rainfed wheat yield
KW - Water productivity
KW - Water stress
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U2 - 10.1007/s10113-013-0412-z
DO - 10.1007/s10113-013-0412-z
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84884702219
SN - 1436-3798
VL - 13
SP - 989
EP - 998
JO - Regional Environmental Change
JF - Regional Environmental Change
IS - 5
ER -