Prediction of postoperative recurrence-free survival in non-small cell lung cancer by using an internationally validated gene expression model

Purpose: This study was performed to discover prognostic genomic markers associated with postoperative outcome of stage I to III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) that are reproducible between geographically distant and demographically distinct patient populations. Experimental Design: American patients (n = 27) were stratified on the basis of recurrence and microarray profiling of their tumors was performed to derive a training set of 44 genes. A larger Korean patient validation cohort (n = 138) was also stratified by recurrence and screened for these genes. Four reproducible genes were identified and used to construct genomic and clinicogenomic Cox models for both cohorts. Results: Four genomic markers, DBN1 (drebrin 1), CACNB3 (calcium channel beta 3), FLAD1 (PP591; flavin adenine dinucleotide synthetase), and CCND2 (cyclin D2), exhibited highly significant differential expression in recurrent tumors in the training set (P < 0.001). In the validation set, DBN1, FLAD1 (PP591), and CACNB3 were significant by Cox univariate analysis (P ≤ 0.035), whereas only DBN1 was significant by multivariate analysis. Genomic and clinicogenomic models for recurrence-free survival (RFS) were equally effective for risk stratification of stage I to II or I to III patients (all models P < 0.0001). For stage I to II or I to III patients, 5-year RFS of the low- and high-risk patients was approximately 70% versus 30% for both models. The genomic model for overall survival of stage I to III patients was improved by addition of pT and pN stage (P < 0.0013 vs. 0.010). Conclusion: A 4-gene prognostic model incorporating the multivariate marker DBN1 exhibits potential clinical utility for risk stratification of stage I to III NSCLC patients.