Predicting Retirement Savings Using Survey Measures of Exponential-Growth Bias and Present Bias

Gopi Shah Goda, Matthew Levy, Colleen Flaherty Manchester, Aaron J. Sojourner, Joshua Tasoff

Research output: Book/ReportCommissioned report

Abstract

In a nationally-representative sample, we predict retirement savings using survey-based elicitations of exponential-growth bias (EGB) and present bias (PB). We find that EGB, the tendency to neglect compounding, and PB, the tendency to value the present over the future, are highly significant and economically meaningful predictors of retirement savings. These relationships hold controlling for cognitive ability, financial literacy, and a rich set of demographic controls. We address measurement error as a potential confound and explore mechanisms through which these biases may operate. Back of the envelope calculations suggest that eliminating EGB and PB would increase retirement savings by approximately 12 percent.
Original languageEnglish (US)
PublisherIZA Discussion Papers
ISBN (Print)11762
StatePublished - 2018

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Present bias
Retirement saving
Predictors
Financial literacy
Demographics
Neglect
Cognitive ability
Measurement error

Cite this

Shah Goda, G., Levy, M., Flaherty Manchester, C., Sojourner, A. J., & Tasoff, J. (2018). Predicting Retirement Savings Using Survey Measures of Exponential-Growth Bias and Present Bias. IZA Discussion Papers.

Predicting Retirement Savings Using Survey Measures of Exponential-Growth Bias and Present Bias. / Shah Goda, Gopi; Levy, Matthew; Flaherty Manchester, Colleen; Sojourner, Aaron J.; Tasoff, Joshua.

IZA Discussion Papers, 2018.

Research output: Book/ReportCommissioned report

Shah Goda, G, Levy, M, Flaherty Manchester, C, Sojourner, AJ & Tasoff, J 2018, Predicting Retirement Savings Using Survey Measures of Exponential-Growth Bias and Present Bias. IZA Discussion Papers.
Shah Goda G, Levy M, Flaherty Manchester C, Sojourner AJ, Tasoff J. Predicting Retirement Savings Using Survey Measures of Exponential-Growth Bias and Present Bias. IZA Discussion Papers, 2018.
Shah Goda, Gopi ; Levy, Matthew ; Flaherty Manchester, Colleen ; Sojourner, Aaron J. ; Tasoff, Joshua. / Predicting Retirement Savings Using Survey Measures of Exponential-Growth Bias and Present Bias. IZA Discussion Papers, 2018.
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