Predicting recurrence patterns after resection of hepatocellular cancer

Background: The reliable prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence patterns potentially allows for the prioritization of patients for liver resection (LR) or transplantation. Objectives: The aim of this study was to analyse clinicopathological factors and preoperative Milan criteria (MC) status in predicting patterns of HCC recurrence. Methods: During 1992-2012, 320 patients undergoing LR for HCC were categorized preoperatively as being within or beyond the MC, as were recurrences. Results: After a median follow-up of 47 months, 183 patients developed recurrence, giving a 5-year cumulative incidence of recurrence of 62.5%. Patients with preoperative disease within the MC had better survival outcomes than those with preoperative disease beyond the MC (median survival: 102 months versus 45 months; P < 0.001). Overall, 31% of patients had preoperative disease within the MC and 69% had preoperative disease beyond the MC. Estimated rates of recurrence-free survival at 5 years were 61.8% for all patients and 53.8% for patients with initial beyond-MC status. Independent factors for recurrence beyond-MC status included preoperative disease beyond the MC, the presence of microsatellite or multiple tumours and lymphovascular invasion (all: P < 0.001). A clinical risk score was used to predict survival and the likelihood of recurrence beyond the MC; patients with scores of 0, 1, 2 and 3 had 5-year incidence of recurring beyond-MC of 9.0%, 29.5%, 48.8% and 75.4%, respectively (P < 0.0001). Conclusions: Regardless of initial MC status, at 5 years the majority of patients remained disease-free or experienced recurrence within the MC after LR, and thus were potentially eligible for salvage transplantation (ST). Incorporating clinicopathological parameters into the MC allows for better risk stratification, which improves the selection of patients for ST and identifies patients in need of closer surveillance.