Predicting graduation rates for three groups of new advanced-standing cohorts

The present study examined the impact of demographic variables, high school and pre-transfer college academic characteristics, transfer student cohort, and post-transfer college academic characteristics on the variable of bachelor’s degree completion at a large, public, urban university in the Midwest. Subjects were 1,327 transfer students from 2- and 4-year post-secondary institutions and former Post-secondary Enrollment Options participants who matriculated at the study institution during 1994-95. Subjects’ enrollment and graduation status were assessed after spring quarter 1998. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify significant predictor variables. Transfer cohort was a significant predictor of graduation status. Results revealed that membership in the 4-year transfer cohort had a more positive impact on graduation than membership in the other two cohorts, even when entry credits were controlled. Other variables significant in the prediction of graduation status included ethnicity, last year/term, first term credits completed, last term GPA, last term credits completed, term count, and last college. Transfer cohort was a significant predictor of degree efficiency. Other significant predictors included last year/term, entry credits total, last term credits completed, last college, entry GPA, and cohort.