Predicted long-term cardiovascular risk among young adults in the national longitudinal study of adolescent health

Cari J Clark, Alvaro Alonso, Rachael A. Spencer, Michael Pencina, Ken Williams, Susan Everson-Rose

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Abstract

Objectives. We estimated the distribution of predicted long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among young adults in the United States.

Methods. Our data were derived from National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health participants (n = 14 333; average age: 28.9 years). We used a Framingham-derived risk prediction function to calculate 30-year risks of "hard" and "general" CVD by gender and race/ethnicity.

Results. Average 30-year risks for hard and general CVD were 10.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.1%, 10.7%) and 17.3% (95% CI = 17.0%, 17.7%) among men and 4.4% (95% CI = 4.3%, 4.6%) and 9.2% (95% CI = 8.9%, 9.5%) among women. Average age-adjusted risks of hard and general CVD were higher among Blacks and American Indians than among Whites and lower among Asian/Pacific Islander women than White women. American Indian men continued to have a higher risk of general CVD after adjustment for socioeconomic status. Four percent of women (95% CI = 3.6%, 5.0%) and 26.2% of men (95% CI = 24.7%, 27.8%) had a 20% or higher risk of general CVD. Racial differences were detected but were not significant after adjustment for socioeconomic status.

Conclusions. Average CVD risk among young adults is high. Population-based prevention strategies and improved detection and treatment of high-risk individuals are needed to reduce the future burden of CVD.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)e108-e115
JournalAmerican journal of public health
Volume104
Issue number12
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2014

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National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health
Young Adult
Cardiovascular Diseases
Confidence Intervals
North American Indians
Social Class

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Predicted long-term cardiovascular risk among young adults in the national longitudinal study of adolescent health. / Clark, Cari J; Alonso, Alvaro; Spencer, Rachael A.; Pencina, Michael; Williams, Ken; Everson-Rose, Susan.

In: American journal of public health, Vol. 104, No. 12, 01.12.2014, p. e108-e115.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Clark, Cari J ; Alonso, Alvaro ; Spencer, Rachael A. ; Pencina, Michael ; Williams, Ken ; Everson-Rose, Susan. / Predicted long-term cardiovascular risk among young adults in the national longitudinal study of adolescent health. In: American journal of public health. 2014 ; Vol. 104, No. 12. pp. e108-e115.
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abstract = "Objectives. We estimated the distribution of predicted long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among young adults in the United States.Methods. Our data were derived from National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health participants (n = 14 333; average age: 28.9 years). We used a Framingham-derived risk prediction function to calculate 30-year risks of {"}hard{"} and {"}general{"} CVD by gender and race/ethnicity.Results. Average 30-year risks for hard and general CVD were 10.4{\%} (95{\%} confidence interval [CI] = 10.1{\%}, 10.7{\%}) and 17.3{\%} (95{\%} CI = 17.0{\%}, 17.7{\%}) among men and 4.4{\%} (95{\%} CI = 4.3{\%}, 4.6{\%}) and 9.2{\%} (95{\%} CI = 8.9{\%}, 9.5{\%}) among women. Average age-adjusted risks of hard and general CVD were higher among Blacks and American Indians than among Whites and lower among Asian/Pacific Islander women than White women. American Indian men continued to have a higher risk of general CVD after adjustment for socioeconomic status. Four percent of women (95{\%} CI = 3.6{\%}, 5.0{\%}) and 26.2{\%} of men (95{\%} CI = 24.7{\%}, 27.8{\%}) had a 20{\%} or higher risk of general CVD. Racial differences were detected but were not significant after adjustment for socioeconomic status.Conclusions. Average CVD risk among young adults is high. Population-based prevention strategies and improved detection and treatment of high-risk individuals are needed to reduce the future burden of CVD.",
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