Potential futures for road transportation CO₂ emissions in the Asia Pacific

Will future transportation carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions per capita in Asia Pacific economies follow historical trends of the now developed world? Evidence to date is inconclusive. A comparison at similar income levels (purchasing power parity) between recent emissions in Asia Pacific countries and historical emissions in developed countries suggests diverging patterns. (A) High-income Asia economies (Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore - 'low emitters') exhibit lower emissions than a selected sample of seven developed countries (United States, Australia, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Sweden and United Kingdom). (B) Another set of Asian countries (South Korea and Taiwan - 'medium emitters') follow the emissions trends of European countries, which are lower than those of Australia and the United States. (C) A third Asian group (Malaysia and Thailand - 'high emitters') exhibit emission trends comparable to that of Australia. We describe these trends, examine their causes and extrapolate likely futures for emissions in low-income Asia Pacific economies (China, Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam). Although such predictions are speculative, the available evidence suggests that road CO₂ emissions for Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam will follow those of the third group (high emitters), while those for China may follow either Group B or Group C.