TY - JOUR
T1 - Postepidemic Epidemiology of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus in the United States
AU - Makau, Dennis
AU - Pamornchainavakul, Nakarin
AU - VanderWaal, Kimberly
AU - Kikuti, Mariana
AU - Picasso, Catalina
AU - Geary, Emily K
AU - Corzo, Cesar A
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 Dennis N. Makau et al.
PY - 2024
Y1 - 2024
N2 - Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) emerged in the United States (U.S.) swine population in 2013, initiating an initial significant epidemic followed by a state of endemicity in the U.S. Despite continued monitoring, the epidemiology of PEDV during its endemic phase remains inadequately researched. Our study aimed to characterize the spatial-temporal distribution of postepidemic PEDV cases in the U.S. breeding herd and identify associated risk factors. Data from 1089 breeding farms in 27 states, reported to the Morrison Swine Health Monitoring Project from July 2014 to June 2021, were analyzed. We stratified the data into six U.S. regions and employed SaTScan for spatiotemporal permutation and cluster analysis. Survival analysis was used to assess risk factors. A notable seasonal clustering of PEDV cases was observed in winter (January-March; p=0.001, relative risk = 2.2) with regional variation. Ten high-rate spatial-temporal clusters (p <0.05) were identified ranging from 2.5 to 833.7 km2 and lasting 1-5 months, occurring in four regions between 2015 and 2021. For the study period, a total of 625 cases of PEDV were recorded on 372 farms. The total number of PEDV cases decreased from 95 breeding farms in 32 counties (2014-2015) to 53 farms in 28 counties (2020-2021), indicating an overall reduction in occurrence and spatial extent. Feed mitigants demonstrated a protective effect, significantly reducing the risk of PEDV occurrence (hazard ratio = 0.3, p=0.003), while air filtration systems exhibited marginal benefits (hazard ratio = 0.3, p=0.06). Other important risk factors included county farm density with farms in high-density regions (>31 farms/100 km2) being 1.3 times more likely to experience outbreaks than in medium-density regions (13-31 farms/1000 km2; p <0.001). Additionally, farms in region E had higher odds of outbreaks compared to region B. The overall decline in PEDV cases and reduced spatial extent reflect industry efforts in postepidemic control and elimination. The protective effects of feed mitigants warrant further investigation. Our findings underscore the opportunity for coordinated efforts to eliminate PEDV in the U.S. and emphasize the need for comprehensive risk profiling associated with industry practices.
AB - Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) emerged in the United States (U.S.) swine population in 2013, initiating an initial significant epidemic followed by a state of endemicity in the U.S. Despite continued monitoring, the epidemiology of PEDV during its endemic phase remains inadequately researched. Our study aimed to characterize the spatial-temporal distribution of postepidemic PEDV cases in the U.S. breeding herd and identify associated risk factors. Data from 1089 breeding farms in 27 states, reported to the Morrison Swine Health Monitoring Project from July 2014 to June 2021, were analyzed. We stratified the data into six U.S. regions and employed SaTScan for spatiotemporal permutation and cluster analysis. Survival analysis was used to assess risk factors. A notable seasonal clustering of PEDV cases was observed in winter (January-March; p=0.001, relative risk = 2.2) with regional variation. Ten high-rate spatial-temporal clusters (p <0.05) were identified ranging from 2.5 to 833.7 km2 and lasting 1-5 months, occurring in four regions between 2015 and 2021. For the study period, a total of 625 cases of PEDV were recorded on 372 farms. The total number of PEDV cases decreased from 95 breeding farms in 32 counties (2014-2015) to 53 farms in 28 counties (2020-2021), indicating an overall reduction in occurrence and spatial extent. Feed mitigants demonstrated a protective effect, significantly reducing the risk of PEDV occurrence (hazard ratio = 0.3, p=0.003), while air filtration systems exhibited marginal benefits (hazard ratio = 0.3, p=0.06). Other important risk factors included county farm density with farms in high-density regions (>31 farms/100 km2) being 1.3 times more likely to experience outbreaks than in medium-density regions (13-31 farms/1000 km2; p <0.001). Additionally, farms in region E had higher odds of outbreaks compared to region B. The overall decline in PEDV cases and reduced spatial extent reflect industry efforts in postepidemic control and elimination. The protective effects of feed mitigants warrant further investigation. Our findings underscore the opportunity for coordinated efforts to eliminate PEDV in the U.S. and emphasize the need for comprehensive risk profiling associated with industry practices.
KW - endemic phase
KW - feed mitigants
KW - PEDV clusters
KW - risk factor analysis
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U2 - 10.1155/2024/5531899
DO - 10.1155/2024/5531899
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85207059373
SN - 1865-1674
VL - 2024
JO - Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
JF - Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
M1 - 5531899
ER -