Planning for the control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Los Angeles County and the United States

Dennis L. Chao, Laura Matrajt, Nicole E. Basta, Jonathan D. Sugimoto, Brandon Dean, Dee Ann Bagwell, Brit Oiulfstad, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

21 Scopus citations

Abstract

Mathematical and computer models can provide guidance to public health officials by projecting the course of an epidemic and evaluating control measures. The authors built upon an existing collaboration between an academic research group and the Los Angeles County, California, Department of Public Health to plan for and respond to the first and subsequent years of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) circulation. The use of models allowed the authors to 1) project the timing and magnitude of the epidemic in Los Angeles County and the continental United States; 2) predict the effect of the influenza mass vaccination campaign that began in October 2009 on the spread of pandemic H1N1 in Los Angeles County and the continental United States; and 3) predict that a third wave of pandemic influenza in the winter or spring of 2010 was unlikely to occur. The close collaboration between modelers and public health officials during pandemic H1N1 spread in the fall of 2009 helped Los Angeles County officials develop a measured and appropriate response to the unfolding pandemic and establish reasonable goals for mitigation of pandemic H1N1.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1121-1130
Number of pages10
JournalAmerican journal of epidemiology
Volume173
Issue number10
DOIs
StatePublished - May 15 2011

Keywords

  • communicable disease control
  • human
  • influenza
  • influenza vaccines
  • mass vaccination

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