Plague, population, and economy in Merovingian Gaul

Most scholars argue that the early medieval plague (541-767), which struck the lands of the erstwhile Roman empire, east and west, had a massive negative impact on the demographic curve. This population decline, in turn, is believed to have resulted in a drastic fall in the production of goods and services. Issue is taken here with this cause and effect model in regard to Merovingian Gaul. Information concerning plague episodes in Gaul demonstrates a pattern of very infrequent strikes of brief duration in widely dispersed areas. In addition, the sources, eg Gregory of Tours, have a parti pris which tends to exaggerate the magnitude of supposed disasters. Consistent with population models developed on the basis of later medieval plague-data, the pattern in Merovingian Gaul allowed sufficient time for rapid demographic recovery and economic growth. These results are consistent with the early medieval written and material evidence that indicates both continuing and substantial population and economic growth even in the most frequently struck cities such as Marseilles and Arles.