Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

R. Iestyn Woolway; Sapna Sharma; Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer; Andrey Debolskiy; Malgorzata Golub; Daniel Mercado-Bettín; Marjorie Perroud; Victor Stepanenko; Zeli Tan; Luke Grant; Robert Ladwig; Jorrit Mesman; Tadhg N. Moore; Tom Shatwell; Inne Vanderkelen; Jay A. Austin; Curtis L. DeGasperi; Martin Dokulil; Sofia La Fuente; Eleanor B. Mackay; S. Geoffrey Schladow; Shohei Watanabe; Rafael Marcé; Don C. Pierson; Wim Thiery; Eleanor Jennings

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22657-4

Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

R. Iestyn Woolway, Sapna Sharma, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Andrey Debolskiy, Malgorzata Golub, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Marjorie Perroud, Victor Stepanenko, Zeli Tan, Luke Grant, Robert Ladwig, Jorrit Mesman, Tadhg N. Moore, Tom Shatwell, Inne Vanderkelen, Jay A. Austin, Curtis L. DeGasperi, Martin Dokulil, Sofia La Fuente, Eleanor B. MackayS. Geoffrey Schladow, Shohei Watanabe, Rafael Marcé, Don C. Pierson, Wim Thiery, Eleanor Jennings

Physics & Astronomy (Duluth)

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

173 Scopus citations

Abstract

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	2318
Journal	Nature communications
Volume	12
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22657-4
State	Published - Dec 1 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
R.I.W. received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement number 791812. T. N.M. was supported under the Climate JPI and Irish EPA project WateXr 2017-CCRP-MS.45. S.L.F. was funded by the Irish HEA Landscape programme and DkIT Research Office. J.M. and M.G. were funded from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement number 722518. E.J. received funding (Grant-Aid Agreement No. PBA/FS/16/02) from Marine Institute Marine Research Programme by the Irish Government. Z.T. is supported by the U.S. DOE’s Earth System Modeling programme through the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project. R.L. was supported through an NSF ABI development grant (#DBI 1759865). I.V. is a research fellow at the Research Foundation Flanders (FWOTM920). W.T. acknowledges the Uniscientia Foundation and the ETH Zurich Foundation for their support. T.S. was supported by the Deutsche For-schungsgemeinschaft (research grant no. DFG KI 853/13-1 and CDZ 1259) and the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research. V.S. and A.D. used HPC facilities of Lomonosov Moscow State University (supercomputer “Lomonosov-2”) and were supported by Russian Ministry of Science and Higher Education, agreement No. 075-15-2019-1621. R.M. participated through the project WATExR (JPI Climate ERA4CS, Grant 690462) and received support from Generalitat de Catalunya (2017SGR11) and the CERCA programme. D.M.-B. participated through the project WATExR (JPI Climate ERA4CS, Grant 690462) funded by MINECO-AEI. T.N.M. was funded by the WATExR project, which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by MINECO (ES), FORMAS (SE), BMBF (DE), EPA (IE), RCN (NO), and IFD (DK), with co-funding by the European Union (Grant number: 690462) and also by NSF grants DEB-1926050 and DBI-1933016. E.B.M. acknowledges the data collection on Blelham Tarn, Esthwaite Water, Windermere North Basin, and Windermere South Basin carried out by the Freshwater Biological Association and UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and currently supported by Natural Environment Research Council award number NE/ R016429/1 as part of the UK-SCaPE programme delivering National Capability. The computations, data handling and storage for GOTM simulations were enabled by resources provided by the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at Uppmax partially funded by the Swedish Research Council through grant agreement no. 2016-07213. Lake Superior data was collected with funding from NSF OCE-0825633. Water temperature data in Lake Washington have been collected with support from the Andrew Mellon Foundation, the National Science Foundation, and the University of Washington (D.E. Schindler, W.T Edmondson, A. Litt, unpublished data), currently through the School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences. We thank the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Lakes project for providing the satellite data.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).

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Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

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10.1038/s41467-021-22657-4

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Woolway, R. I., Sharma, S., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Debolskiy, A., Golub, M., Mercado-Bettín, D., Perroud, M., Stepanenko, V., Tan, Z., Grant, L., Ladwig, R., Mesman, J., Moore, T. N., Shatwell, T., Vanderkelen, I., Austin, J. A., DeGasperi, C. L., Dokulil, M., La Fuente, S., ... Jennings, E. (2021). Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change. Nature communications, 12(1), Article 2318. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22657-4

Woolway, RI, Sharma, S, Weyhenmeyer, GA, Debolskiy, A, Golub, M, Mercado-Bettín, D, Perroud, M, Stepanenko, V, Tan, Z, Grant, L, Ladwig, R, Mesman, J, Moore, TN, Shatwell, T, Vanderkelen, I, Austin, JA, DeGasperi, CL, Dokulil, M, La Fuente, S, Mackay, EB, Schladow, SG, Watanabe, S, Marcé, R, Pierson, DC, Thiery, W & Jennings, E 2021, 'Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change', Nature communications, vol. 12, no. 1, 2318. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22657-4

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title = "Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change",

abstract = "One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.",

author = "Woolway, {R. Iestyn} and Sapna Sharma and Weyhenmeyer, {Gesa A.} and Andrey Debolskiy and Malgorzata Golub and Daniel Mercado-Bett{\'i}n and Marjorie Perroud and Victor Stepanenko and Zeli Tan and Luke Grant and Robert Ladwig and Jorrit Mesman and Moore, {Tadhg N.} and Tom Shatwell and Inne Vanderkelen and Austin, {Jay A.} and DeGasperi, {Curtis L.} and Martin Dokulil and {La Fuente}, Sofia and Mackay, {Eleanor B.} and Schladow, {S. Geoffrey} and Shohei Watanabe and Rafael Marc{\'e} and Pierson, {Don C.} and Wim Thiery and Eleanor Jennings",

note = "Funding Information: R.I.W. received funding from the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Marie Sk{\l}odowska-Curie grant agreement number 791812. T. N.M. was supported under the Climate JPI and Irish EPA project WateXr 2017-CCRP-MS.45. S.L.F. was funded by the Irish HEA Landscape programme and DkIT Research Office. J.M. and M.G. were funded from the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Marie Sk{\l}odowska-Curie grant agreement number 722518. E.J. received funding (Grant-Aid Agreement No. PBA/FS/16/02) from Marine Institute Marine Research Programme by the Irish Government. Z.T. is supported by the U.S. DOE{\textquoteright}s Earth System Modeling programme through the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project. R.L. was supported through an NSF ABI development grant (#DBI 1759865). I.V. is a research fellow at the Research Foundation Flanders (FWOTM920). W.T. acknowledges the Uniscientia Foundation and the ETH Zurich Foundation for their support. T.S. was supported by the Deutsche For-schungsgemeinschaft (research grant no. DFG KI 853/13-1 and CDZ 1259) and the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research. V.S. and A.D. used HPC facilities of Lomonosov Moscow State University (supercomputer “Lomonosov-2”) and were supported by Russian Ministry of Science and Higher Education, agreement No. 075-15-2019-1621. R.M. participated through the project WATExR (JPI Climate ERA4CS, Grant 690462) and received support from Generalitat de Catalunya (2017SGR11) and the CERCA programme. D.M.-B. participated through the project WATExR (JPI Climate ERA4CS, Grant 690462) funded by MINECO-AEI. T.N.M. was funded by the WATExR project, which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by MINECO (ES), FORMAS (SE), BMBF (DE), EPA (IE), RCN (NO), and IFD (DK), with co-funding by the European Union (Grant number: 690462) and also by NSF grants DEB-1926050 and DBI-1933016. E.B.M. acknowledges the data collection on Blelham Tarn, Esthwaite Water, Windermere North Basin, and Windermere South Basin carried out by the Freshwater Biological Association and UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and currently supported by Natural Environment Research Council award number NE/ R016429/1 as part of the UK-SCaPE programme delivering National Capability. The computations, data handling and storage for GOTM simulations were enabled by resources provided by the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at Uppmax partially funded by the Swedish Research Council through grant agreement no. 2016-07213. Lake Superior data was collected with funding from NSF OCE-0825633. Water temperature data in Lake Washington have been collected with support from the Andrew Mellon Foundation, the National Science Foundation, and the University of Washington (D.E. Schindler, W.T Edmondson, A. Litt, unpublished data), currently through the School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences. We thank the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Lakes project for providing the satellite data. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s).",

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doi = "10.1038/s41467-021-22657-4",

language = "English (US)",

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T1 - Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

AU - Woolway, R. Iestyn

AU - Sharma, Sapna

AU - Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.

AU - Debolskiy, Andrey

AU - Golub, Malgorzata

AU - Mercado-Bettín, Daniel

AU - Perroud, Marjorie

AU - Stepanenko, Victor

AU - Tan, Zeli

AU - Grant, Luke

AU - Ladwig, Robert

AU - Mesman, Jorrit

AU - Moore, Tadhg N.

AU - Shatwell, Tom

AU - Vanderkelen, Inne

AU - Austin, Jay A.

AU - DeGasperi, Curtis L.

AU - Dokulil, Martin

AU - La Fuente, Sofia

AU - Mackay, Eleanor B.

AU - Schladow, S. Geoffrey

AU - Watanabe, Shohei

AU - Marcé, Rafael

AU - Pierson, Don C.

AU - Thiery, Wim

AU - Jennings, Eleanor

N1 - Funding Information: R.I.W. received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement number 791812. T. N.M. was supported under the Climate JPI and Irish EPA project WateXr 2017-CCRP-MS.45. S.L.F. was funded by the Irish HEA Landscape programme and DkIT Research Office. J.M. and M.G. were funded from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement number 722518. E.J. received funding (Grant-Aid Agreement No. PBA/FS/16/02) from Marine Institute Marine Research Programme by the Irish Government. Z.T. is supported by the U.S. DOE’s Earth System Modeling programme through the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project. R.L. was supported through an NSF ABI development grant (#DBI 1759865). I.V. is a research fellow at the Research Foundation Flanders (FWOTM920). W.T. acknowledges the Uniscientia Foundation and the ETH Zurich Foundation for their support. T.S. was supported by the Deutsche For-schungsgemeinschaft (research grant no. DFG KI 853/13-1 and CDZ 1259) and the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research. V.S. and A.D. used HPC facilities of Lomonosov Moscow State University (supercomputer “Lomonosov-2”) and were supported by Russian Ministry of Science and Higher Education, agreement No. 075-15-2019-1621. R.M. participated through the project WATExR (JPI Climate ERA4CS, Grant 690462) and received support from Generalitat de Catalunya (2017SGR11) and the CERCA programme. D.M.-B. participated through the project WATExR (JPI Climate ERA4CS, Grant 690462) funded by MINECO-AEI. T.N.M. was funded by the WATExR project, which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by MINECO (ES), FORMAS (SE), BMBF (DE), EPA (IE), RCN (NO), and IFD (DK), with co-funding by the European Union (Grant number: 690462) and also by NSF grants DEB-1926050 and DBI-1933016. E.B.M. acknowledges the data collection on Blelham Tarn, Esthwaite Water, Windermere North Basin, and Windermere South Basin carried out by the Freshwater Biological Association and UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and currently supported by Natural Environment Research Council award number NE/ R016429/1 as part of the UK-SCaPE programme delivering National Capability. The computations, data handling and storage for GOTM simulations were enabled by resources provided by the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at Uppmax partially funded by the Swedish Research Council through grant agreement no. 2016-07213. Lake Superior data was collected with funding from NSF OCE-0825633. Water temperature data in Lake Washington have been collected with support from the Andrew Mellon Foundation, the National Science Foundation, and the University of Washington (D.E. Schindler, W.T Edmondson, A. Litt, unpublished data), currently through the School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences. We thank the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Lakes project for providing the satellite data. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s).

PY - 2021/12/1

Y1 - 2021/12/1

N2 - One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.

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Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

Abstract

Bibliographical note

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UN SDGs

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