Pathologic Complete Response, Total Neoadjuvant Therapy and the Survival Paradox in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

Background: Pathologic complete response (pCR) after preoperative chemoradiation (nCRT) correlates with improved overall survival for patients with locally advanced rectal cancers (LARCs). Escalation protocols including total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT), which delivers multi-agent chemotherapy and chemoradiation before surgery, are associated with increased complete response rates. However, TNT is not associated with improved overall survival. The authors hypothesized that the route to pCR may be an important predictor of oncologic outcome. Methods: Adults with LARC between 2006 and 2017 were identified in the National Cancer Database. The cohort was limited to those who received neoadjuvant radiation (45–70 Gy) and underwent proctectomy. Results: Of 25,880 patients, 16 % received TNT and 84 % had nCRT followed by either multi-agent (27 %), single-agent (14 %), or no adjuvant chemotherapy (44 %). Overall, 18 % achieved pCR, with higher rates in the TNT cohort than in the nCRT (18 %) or multi-agent (14 %) chemotherapy cohorts. With control for covariates, the OS in the pCR cohort was similar for the patients that received single-agent therapy and those that received multi-agent adjuvant therapy, and superior to the TNT and no adjuvant therapy cohorts. Conversely, among the patients who did not achieve pCR, those who received single-agent chemotherapy had OS comparable with those who had multi-agent adjuvant therapy and TNT, which was better than no adjuvant therapy. Conclusion: Patients achieving pCR after TNT had worse OS than those who had CRT alone, suggesting that the neoadjuvant route by which pCR is achieved is prognostically relevant. Therefore, in the era of neoadjuvant therapy escalation, pCR does not necessarily portend a uniformly favorable prognosis.