Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system

Victor Brovkin; Edward Brook; John W. Williams; Sebastian Bathiany; Timothy M. Lenton; Michael Barton; Robert M. DeConto; Jonathan F. Donges; Andrey Ganopolski; Jerry McManus; Summer Praetorius; Anne de Vernal; Ayako Abe-Ouchi; Hai Cheng; Martin Claussen; Michel Crucifix; Gilberto Gallopín; Virginia Iglesias; Darrell S. Kaufman; Thomas Kleinen; Fabrice Lambert; Sander van der Leeuw; Hannah Liddy; Marie France Loutre; David McGee; Kira Rehfeld; Rachael Rhodes; Alistair W.R. Seddon; Martin H. Trauth; Lilian Vanderveken; Zicheng Yu

doi:10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5

Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system

Victor Brovkin, Edward Brook, John W. Williams, Sebastian Bathiany, Timothy M. Lenton, Michael Barton, Robert M. DeConto, Jonathan F. Donges, Andrey Ganopolski, Jerry McManus, Summer Praetorius, Anne de Vernal, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Hai Cheng, Martin Claussen, Michel Crucifix, Gilberto Gallopín, Virginia Iglesias, Darrell S. Kaufman, Thomas KleinenFabrice Lambert, Sander van der Leeuw, Hannah Liddy, Marie France Loutre, David McGee, Kira Rehfeld, Rachael Rhodes, Alistair W.R. Seddon, Martin H. Trauth, Lilian Vanderveken, Zicheng Yu

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

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Abstract

The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	550-558
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Geoscience
Volume	14
Issue number	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5
State	Published - Aug 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This paper is an outcome of the workshop ‘Abrupt changes, thresholds, and tipping points in Earth history and future implications’ held in Hamburg, Germany, in November 2018, which most of the authors attended. The workshop was officially endorsed by Analysis, Integration and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) and Past Global Changes (PAGES) of Future Earth and received financial support from PAGES and the Max Planck Society. We thank N. Noreiks for assistance with Fig. 3. F.L. acknowledges funding from ANID/MSI/Millennium Nucleus Paleoclimate under grant number ANID/FONDAP/15110009 and grant number ANID/FONDECYT/ 1191223. J.M. was supported in part by the US NSF. J.W.W. acknowledges funding from NSF grant number 1855781 and WARF. V.B., T.K. and M. Claussen acknowledge support from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through the PalMod project. J.F.D. was supported by the Leibniz Association project DominoES and the European Research Council Advanced Grant project ERA (Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene; grant ERC-2016-ADG-743080

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© 2021, Springer Nature Limited.

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Brovkin, V., Brook, E., Williams, J. W., Bathiany, S., Lenton, T. M., Barton, M., DeConto, R. M., Donges, J. F., Ganopolski, A., McManus, J., Praetorius, S., de Vernal, A., Abe-Ouchi, A., Cheng, H., Claussen, M., Crucifix, M., Gallopín, G., Iglesias, V., Kaufman, D. S., ... Yu, Z. (2021). Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system. Nature Geoscience, 14(8), 550-558. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5

Brovkin, V, Brook, E, Williams, JW, Bathiany, S, Lenton, TM, Barton, M, DeConto, RM, Donges, JF, Ganopolski, A, McManus, J, Praetorius, S, de Vernal, A, Abe-Ouchi, A, Cheng, H, Claussen, M, Crucifix, M, Gallopín, G, Iglesias, V, Kaufman, DS, Kleinen, T, Lambert, F, van der Leeuw, S, Liddy, H, Loutre, MF, McGee, D, Rehfeld, K, Rhodes, R, Seddon, AWR, Trauth, MH, Vanderveken, L & Yu, Z 2021, 'Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system', Nature Geoscience, vol. 14, no. 8, pp. 550-558. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5

@article{097b750822d54125bfa120d505327588,

title = "Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system",

abstract = "The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.",

author = "Victor Brovkin and Edward Brook and Williams, {John W.} and Sebastian Bathiany and Lenton, {Timothy M.} and Michael Barton and DeConto, {Robert M.} and Donges, {Jonathan F.} and Andrey Ganopolski and Jerry McManus and Summer Praetorius and {de Vernal}, Anne and Ayako Abe-Ouchi and Hai Cheng and Martin Claussen and Michel Crucifix and Gilberto Gallop{\'i}n and Virginia Iglesias and Kaufman, {Darrell S.} and Thomas Kleinen and Fabrice Lambert and {van der Leeuw}, Sander and Hannah Liddy and Loutre, {Marie France} and David McGee and Kira Rehfeld and Rachael Rhodes and Seddon, {Alistair W.R.} and Trauth, {Martin H.} and Lilian Vanderveken and Zicheng Yu",

note = "Funding Information: This paper is an outcome of the workshop {\textquoteleft}Abrupt changes, thresholds, and tipping points in Earth history and future implications{\textquoteright} held in Hamburg, Germany, in November 2018, which most of the authors attended. The workshop was officially endorsed by Analysis, Integration and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) and Past Global Changes (PAGES) of Future Earth and received financial support from PAGES and the Max Planck Society. We thank N. Noreiks for assistance with Fig. 3. F.L. acknowledges funding from ANID/MSI/Millennium Nucleus Paleoclimate under grant number ANID/FONDAP/15110009 and grant number ANID/FONDECYT/ 1191223. J.M. was supported in part by the US NSF. J.W.W. acknowledges funding from NSF grant number 1855781 and WARF. V.B., T.K. and M. Claussen acknowledge support from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through the PalMod project. J.F.D. was supported by the Leibniz Association project DominoES and the European Research Council Advanced Grant project ERA (Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene; grant ERC-2016-ADG-743080 Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, Springer Nature Limited.",

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AU - Barton, Michael

AU - DeConto, Robert M.

AU - Donges, Jonathan F.

AU - Ganopolski, Andrey

AU - McManus, Jerry

AU - Praetorius, Summer

AU - de Vernal, Anne

AU - Abe-Ouchi, Ayako

AU - Cheng, Hai

AU - Claussen, Martin

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AU - Kleinen, Thomas

AU - Lambert, Fabrice

AU - van der Leeuw, Sander

AU - Liddy, Hannah

AU - Loutre, Marie France

AU - McGee, David

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AU - Rhodes, Rachael

AU - Seddon, Alistair W.R.

AU - Trauth, Martin H.

AU - Vanderveken, Lilian

AU - Yu, Zicheng

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N2 - The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.

AB - The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.

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Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system

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