Mathematical models of sexually transmitted disease (STI) are increasingly relied on to inform policy, practice, and resource allocation. Because STI transmission requires sexual contact between two or more people, a model's ability to represent the dynamics of sexual partnerships can influence the validity of findings. This ability is to a large extent constrained by the model type, as different modeling frameworks vary in their capability to capture patterns of sexual contact at individual, partnership, and network levels. In this paper, we classify models into three groups: compartmental, individual-based, and statistical network models. For each framework, we describe the basic model structure and discuss key aspects of sexual partnership dynamics: how and with whom partnerships are formed, partnership duration and dissolution, and temporal overlap in partnerships (concurrency). We illustrate the potential implications of accurately accounting for partnership dynamics, but these effects depend on characteristics of both the population and pathogen; the combined impact of these partnership and epidemiologic dynamics can be difficult to predict. While each of the reviewed model frameworks may be appropriate to inform certain research or policy questions, modelers and consumers of models should carefully consider the implications of sexual partnership dynamics for the questions under study.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
This work was supported by the University of Washington STD/AIDS Research Training Program (NIH T32 AI07140), the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number KL2 TR002317, and funding from the NIH through the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01-AI138783) and the National Cancer Institute (U01 CA199334). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.
- Compartmental model
- Individual model
- Mathematical model
- Network model
- Partnership dynamics
- Sexual network
- Sexually transmitted infections
PubMed: MeSH publication types
- Journal Article
- Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural