Paired comparison of observed and expected coronary heart disease rates over 12 years from the atherosclerosis risk in communities study

Nina P. Paynter, A. Richey Sharrett, Thomas A. Louis, Wayne Rosamond, Aaron R. Folsom, Josef Coresh

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

Purpose: To quantify the relationship between coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factor levels and changes over time and population-wide CHD morbidity and mortality. Methods: We used a paired cohort and community surveillance of hospitalized myocardial infarction and CHD deaths of community members 53 to 64 years of age in four geographic areas to compare observed community CHD to expected CHD rates and trends based on cohort risk factors. Results: Observed CHD rates declined by 1% to 3% per year in all communities except one, whereas CHD death rates declined 3% to 6% per year in all communities. Risk factor trends predicted a 2% to 3% per year decline in both total events and death. In all communities except one, expected rates of total CHD events were lower than the observed rates, whereas expected and observed CHD death rates were similar. Across all communities women had a higher CHD death rate than expected. Conclusion: Overall, trends in CHD risk factors provide a useful indicator of changes in community event rates and of CHD death, but caution is warranted in prediction of absolute risk of CHD events.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)683-690
Number of pages8
JournalAnnals of epidemiology
Volume20
Issue number9
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 2010

Keywords

  • Adult, Coronary Disease
  • Humans
  • Mortality/Trends
  • Myocardial Infarction/Mortality/Prevention and Control
  • Myocardial Revascularization/Statistics and Numerical Data
  • Risk Factors
  • United States/Epidemiology

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