Overall mortality, incremental life expectancy, and cause of death at 25 years in the program on the surgical control of the hyperlipidemias

Henry Buchwald, Kyle D. Rudser, Stanley E. Williams, Van N. Michalek, James Vagasky, John E. Connett

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

65 Scopus citations

Abstract

Objective: To present the longest follow-up report of any lipid-atherosclerosis intervention trial. Summary of background data: The Program on the Surgical Control of the Hyperlipidemias (POSCH), a secondary, clinical/arteriographic, randomized controlled trial, was the first lipid-atherosclerosis trial to demonstrate unequivocally that low density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction reduced the incidence of coronary heart disease death and myocardial infarction. Methods: We report POSCH 25 years follow-up for overall mortality, specific cause of death, and certain subgroup analyses, as well as a prediction for increase in life expectancy derived from the POSCH database, supplemented by the 2006 National Death Index, 1989-2006. Results: There were 838 patients randomized in POSCH (421 surgery, 417 control). At 25 years follow-up, the difference in the restricted mean survival and the logrank (Mantel-Haenszel) statistic was statistically significant, with survival probabilities of 0.57 (surgery) and 0.51 (controls). Cause of death data indicated a significant increase in cardiovascular deaths in the control group; cancer deaths were also greater in the control group but this was not significant. The most compelling subgroup analysis was a significant increase in survival, starting at 5 years after randomization, in the surgery group for patients with an ejection fraction ≥ 50%, with relative probabilities of 0.61 (surgery) and 0.51 (control). The estimated incremental increase in life expectancy over more than 25 years of follow-up was 1.0 year overall and 1.7 years in the cohort with an ejection fraction ≥50%. Conclusions: A 25-year mortality follow-up in POSCH shows statistically significant gains in overall survival, cardiovascular disease-free survival, and life expectancy in the surgery group compared with the control group.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1034-1040
Number of pages7
JournalAnnals of surgery
Volume251
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 2010

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