Oscillations in daily pain prediction accuracy

Patrick H. Finan, Eric E. Hessler, Polemnia G. Amazeen, Jonathan Butner, Alex J. Zautra, Howard Tennen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

17 Scopus citations


Dynamical systems modeling was used to analyze fluctuations in the pain prediction process of people with rheumatoid arthritis. 170 people diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis completed 29 consecutive days of diaries. Difference scores between pain predictions and next-day pain experience ratings provided a time series of pain prediction accuracy. Pain prediction accuracy oscillated over time. The oscillation amplitude was larger at the start of the diary than at the end, which indicates damping toward more accurate predictions. State-level psychological characteristics moderated the damping pattern such that the oscillations for patients with lower negative affect and higher pain control damped more quickly than the oscillations for their counterparts. Those findings suggest that low negative affect and high pain control generally contributed to a more accurate pain prediction process in the chronically ill. Positive affect did not differentiate the damping pattern but, within each oscillation cycle, patients with higher positive affect spent more time making inaccurate predictions than their counterparts. The current analyses highlight the need to account for change in data through dynamical modeling, which cannot be fully observed through traditional statistical techniques.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)27-46
Number of pages20
JournalNonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jan 2010


  • Damped oscillator
  • Negative affect
  • Pain control
  • Pain prediction
  • Positive affect


Dive into the research topics of 'Oscillations in daily pain prediction accuracy'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this