TY - JOUR
T1 - On rigorous specification of ICAR models
AU - Lavine, Michael L.
AU - Hodges, James S.
PY - 2012
Y1 - 2012
N2 - Intrinsic (or improper) conditional autoregressions, or ICARs, are widely used in spatial statistics, splines, dynamic linear models, and elsewhere. Such models usually have several variance components, including one for errors and at least one for random effects. Likelihood and Bayesian inference depend on the likelihood function of those variances. But in the absence of constraints or further specifications that are not inherent to ICARs, the likelihood function is arbitrary and thus so are some inferences. We suggest several ways to add constraints or further specifications, but any choice is merely a convention.
AB - Intrinsic (or improper) conditional autoregressions, or ICARs, are widely used in spatial statistics, splines, dynamic linear models, and elsewhere. Such models usually have several variance components, including one for errors and at least one for random effects. Likelihood and Bayesian inference depend on the likelihood function of those variances. But in the absence of constraints or further specifications that are not inherent to ICARs, the likelihood function is arbitrary and thus so are some inferences. We suggest several ways to add constraints or further specifications, but any choice is merely a convention.
KW - Conditional autoregression
KW - Improper distributions
KW - Intrinsic random fields
KW - Markov random fields
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U2 - 10.1080/00031305.2012.654746
DO - 10.1080/00031305.2012.654746
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84862682969
SN - 0003-1305
VL - 66
SP - 42
EP - 49
JO - American Statistician
JF - American Statistician
IS - 1
ER -